Search Results for: Beware of averaging

Stock Market Returns And Presidents – Beware Of Averaging

We have warned about looking at averages (see here), especially with such skewed distributions and how a couple outliers can greatly distort this most common statistical metric. Real Life Macro Economy Example:  2019 Q1:  Average U.S. Household Wealth =  $803.3K … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Fed Heads Talking 4 Percent Inflation

Fed's Kashkari says he would not panic if he saw a 4% inflation rate-BBG — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) April 8, 2021 The bond market might, however, assuming Kashkari’s  quote is true. We are reposting a piece, which we recieved tremendous pushback … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Equities, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , , | 24 Comments

Ready For 4 Percent CPI By Mid-Year?

Starting to hear lots of talk about inflation these days, something we have been seeing in the pipeline for the past six months. Input price inflation accelerated to a near-decade high in January. Costs increased to the greatest extent since … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Equities, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , , | 24 Comments

Average Hourly Earnings Up 4.7 Percent In One Month?

Not!  The deception of averaging as most jobs that were lost are in the lower wage sectors, such as bars and restaurants. We have written several posts about how deceptive economic data can be simply because of averaging.  See here and … Continue reading

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