Search Results for: The Bear On The Balcony

The Bear On The Balcony At Bretton Woods

Posted on July 15, 2019 by macromon

Ursa Major waits patiently as she watches over,  in amazement, the yield chasing salmon in a panic buying frenzy over fears of NIRP, ZIRP. negative and near zero bond yields forever and ever. The Bear on the Balcony is giving, …them … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged | 13 Comments

About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Posted on December 19, 2019 by macromon

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Enter The Selling Zone 2.0

Posted on October 25, 2019 by macromon

It’s that time again. No, not the now annual October fires in California (helluva a Chinese hoax, btw) we’re running from but the S&P moving into the selling zone. We are reposting a piece we published on the very day … Continue reading →

Posted in Equity, Uncategorized | 18 Comments

Heads Up! Friday’s Rare S&P Shooting Star Candlestick

Posted on October 12, 2019 by macromon

We’ve been ignoring the daily noise of the stock market given the futility of trying trade against the blatant market manipulation but especially, after the S&P met our target of 3025, which we posted on April 1st, If you have … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

Are Central Banks Ready To Break Their Codependency?

Posted on August 27, 2019 by macromon

Breaking our radio silence as we couldn’t help ourselves after reading former NY Fed President William Dudley’s piece imploring the Fed to stop enabling Trump’s  trade war. It sounds like central bankers are starting to realize they are, and have been, … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion

Posted on August 15, 2019 by macromon

We should be on vacation but it never fails that volatility spikes as soon as we leave our desk.   It must be the Ides Of August. Wait, it is.  Et tu Brutal! Nevertheless, we can’t help ourselves and have to … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

The S&P’s Very Long Top

Posted on August 5, 2019 by macromon

The S&P got whacked again today and is now about 1 percent below its first peak of January 26, 2018, in this very long topping process.  In other words, stocks have gone nowhere for the past 18 months. We believe … Continue reading →

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Summer Of Discontent Cometh

Posted on August 5, 2019 by macromon

It feels like the rivets are really starting to pop on the global international order as we have been warning over and over and over.  The markets smell it. If China moves on Hong Kong, things can really go sideways … Continue reading →

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Enter The Selling Zone 2.0

Posted on July 26, 2019 by macromon

It’s that time again. No, not the, now annual October fires in California (helluva a Chinese hoax, btw) we’re running from but the S&P moving into the selling zone. We are reposting a piece we published on the very day … Continue reading →

Posted in Equity, Uncategorized | 16 Comments

Codependent Central Bankers

Posted on July 16, 2019 by macromon

Codependency is characterized by a person belonging to a dysfunctional, one-sided relationship where one person relies on the other for meeting nearly all of their emotional and self-esteem needs. It also describes a relationship that enables another person to maintain … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment