Search Results for: The Gathering Storm 2.0

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 41 Comments

Newton’s Q1 Law Of Motion For The S&P500

Newton’s three laws of motion may be stated as follows: Every object in a state of uniform motion will remain in that state of motion unless an external force acts on it. Force equals mass times acceleration. For every action, there is an equal and … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Equity, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

“Crowding Out” Caused The Q4 Stock Swoon

In what we consider one of our best and most timely all-time posts, The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0, a must-read tome on the structural changes taking place in the U.S. Treasury market, we warned at the end of last … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 8 Comments

2019’s Five Most Mispriced Tail Events

  Trump Leaves Office By Year-End There is only one thing Trump likes more than power – money.  As his legal troubles grow exponentially in 2019, the president has an epiphany that he could lose all his wealth.  He cuts … Continue reading

Posted in Tail Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

Diagnosing What Ails The Market

My father-in-law died of rectal melanoma, a disease so rare his doctors didn’t even know it existed.  He was diagnosed with having a rectal fissure.   He lived with some discomfort until I called him one night.  Slurring his words, he … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind

At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market,  The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0,  which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments

Changes Coming To Global Macro Monitor

The Global Macro Monitor (GMM) came into existence in 2010, motivated, mainly, as a way to discipline our trading.  There is nothing like writing and data crunching to create clear, concise thinking and original research to create a framework to … Continue reading

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Why The 2018 Stock Market Corrections Are Different

Just a quick note and some data to bolster our last post and concern that Treasury yields are not coming in  during this stock market correction. The table illustrates that the this year’s two S&P 10 percent corrections have coincided … Continue reading

Posted in Equity, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 33 Comments

America Thirst: China’s Flows Worrisome – Art Cashin

Just before the close, Art Cashin, one of the best out there, cited the weak Treasury auctions and, ergo, worries China is pulling back on its Treasury purchases as a major factor behind the ugly stock sell-off. Click here for … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing

Summary Largely ignored by the markets,  Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments