Search Results for: Rent Control

Beware Mocking Bubbles & Bears

Once again, seeing lots of articles and talking heads mocking bubbles and the bears, which is usually a sign a big bubble is going to burst.  The last time we saw this kind of taunting of the bears was three … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 15 Comments

Can Treasury Issue An Additional $1 trn At These Fake Yields?

A question has been nagging us for some time.  If the current sovereign yields are repressed and fake, many of which are negative, can the borrowers issue any significant amount of new debt at these current yields?   Especially to long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 6 Comments

Enter The Selling Zone 2.0

It’s that time again. No, not the, now annual October fires in California (helluva a Chinese hoax, btw) we’re running from but the S&P moving into the selling zone. We are reposting a piece we published on the very day … Continue reading

Posted in Equity, Uncategorized | 16 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 42 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

The Fed and Credit Rationing

John Taylor’s piece in the WSJ yesterday noted, So if investors are told by the Fed that the short-term rate is going to be close to zero in the future, then they will bid down the yield on the long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Interest Rates, Monetary Policy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Is the Fed Contributing to the Credit/Mortgage Crunch?

One of the smartest hedge fund managers we know spends most of his day locked away in his office analyzing how the market consensus could be wrong.  He hangs with au contraire crowd, breaking bread with contrarians and demands you … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 14 Comments

Most Overvalued Equity Markets – IMF

October Datafest October is always a month of feasting for us macro data junkies as the IMF releases several of their annual reports and databases, such as the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR).   We … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Trump Is Now Compromised In China Trade Talks

The road to a credible China trade deal just got a bit narrower and bumpier after President Trump all but recruited China for his 2020 campaign.  China may not accept but they do now have a tremendous amount of more … Continue reading

Posted in Trade War, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Beware Shorting Impeachments

Reposting a piece from a few years back to provide some market perspective on today’s news.  There are a confluence of events, not just political instability, of why we believe stocks are headed lower, including valuations and the shifting of … Continue reading

Posted in Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments