Search Results for: The Gathering Storm 2.0

Changes Coming To Global Macro Monitor

Posted on November 7, 2018 by

The Global Macro Monitor (GMM) came into existence in 2010, motivated, mainly, as a way to discipline our trading.  There is nothing like writing and data crunching to create clear, concise thinking and original research to create a framework to … Continue reading →

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Why The 2018 Stock Market Corrections Are Different

Posted on October 29, 2018 by

Just a quick note and some data to bolster our last post and concern that Treasury yields are not coming in  during this stock market correction. The table illustrates that the this year’s two S&P 10 percent corrections have coincided … Continue reading →

Posted in Equity, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 33 Comments

America Thirst: China’s Flows Worrisome – Art Cashin

Posted on October 24, 2018 by

Just before the close, Art Cashin, one of the best out there, cited the weak Treasury auctions and, ergo, worries China is pulling back on its Treasury purchases as a major factor behind the ugly stock sell-off. Click here for … Continue reading →

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Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing

Posted on October 16, 2018 by

Summary Largely ignored by the markets,  Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading →

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

QE’s Fading Legacy Moving Long Yields Higher

Posted on October 9, 2018 by

Summary The legacy of the Fed’s QE is fading in the bond auctions For the first time in several years, SOMA did not and will not participate in any of the September or October Treasury auctions The Treasury has to … Continue reading →

Posted in Debt, Fed, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Week In Review – October 5

Posted on October 7, 2018 by

Summary Ugly week for Global Bonds.  Run to our Sept 23rd post, The Gathering Storm in the Treasury Market 2.0,  as to why we thought yields were about to spike.  Boy, did they Stocks followed bonds lower causing pain the … Continue reading →

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Alea Iacta Est!

Posted on October 3, 2018 by

As Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River with the 13th legion into Italy to march on Rome, he turned to one of his deputies, quite possibly, Marc Antony, and made the famous remark, “alea iacta est.”  Historians translate this as “the die … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, German Bund, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 19 Comments