“There will be no refunds!”

The data are moving against them.

Still, 63 days and 16 hours are an eternity in politics.  Much can happen between now and then but we suspect it won’t be positive.

Moreover, the economy won’t save them.  Ask President Clinton about that.

Given the current political climate, extremely low polling for the incumbent president, it does look like a 1994 rout is in store for the party in power.  In 1994, the Democrats lost both the House and Senate as Newt’s “Contract with America” was ushered in with the Republicans capturing 54 congressional seats, eight Senate seats, and ten governorships.

The 1994 political rout took place in spite of a strengthening economy, which was beginning to accelerate — Q2 1994 GDP growth came in at 5.5 percent, with the three-quarter moving average GDP growth the highest in 10 years.  The S&P500 was up around 2 percent going into September 1994. – GMM,  Sept 2

Flipping the Senate will be more difficult but a much higher probability than expected, in our opinion.

This will truly be the year of women flexing their political clout.

Not partisan or a political statement, just inferences from the polling data and our sense of the political climate.