Monthly Archives: December 2016

History Shows Why Prognosticators Should Be Discounted

It is the end of the year and prognosticators are crawling out of the woodwork.  So, it’s time to repost a piece from Global Macro Monitor years’ past. Prophets are usually false, and that includes us.  After all, look at … Continue reading

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Reagan v Trump Macro Initial Conditions

We hear lots of talk these days about,  Why Donald Trump’s Market Rally Echoes Ronald Reagan’s.    We are big fans of Chaos Theory, Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics focused on the behavior of dynamical systems that are … Continue reading

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COTD: Pain In Global Bond Portfolios

Lots of pain out there over the past few months in global bond portfolios. Look at the reach for duration as global interest rates fell in the IMF chart below,  The IMF probably created the chart in late August/early September.  … Continue reading

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Heavy Drinking Americans And Seasonal Adjustment

Interesting piece in WashPost the other day,  Where the heaviest-drinking Americans live …who among us is likely to do the most drinking this holiday season? The Department of Health and Human Services recently updated the official federal statistics on the percent … Continue reading

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US Sector ETF Performance – Dec 23

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Daily Risk Monitor – December 23

Click on table to enlarge and for better resolution  

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Quote of the Day (QOTD)

Remember: Prices drive narratives.   – Eddy Elfenbein Or, as we like to say,  “analysts retrofit fundamentals to the price action.”

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Merry Christmas, Folks!

Thanks for tuning in this year and staying with us.  Lots of good things to come in the New Year. Let us raise some Christmas cheer the progress we have have made over the past two centuries and end with … Continue reading

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COTD: Big Oil

Our chart of the day (COTD) comes to from the Visual Capitalist.     First, some context from their website, The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays. Ever since the invention of the internal … Continue reading

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