Monthly Archives: March 2017

QOTD: Tokyo’s Real Estate Bubble of the 1980’s

Nice follow-up quote from our last post on federal land holdings and assets.  U.S. government praying for a land bubble?  Just yanking your Markov chain. At the peak of the real estate bubble in the late 1980s, the 1.32 square … Continue reading

Posted in Japan, Real Estate | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt? Not Even Close.

We often hear the meme “the U.S. is the next Greece.”   “The government is insolvent.”  Complete nonsense. We tend to focus too much on the right side of the government’s balance sheet and not the left side — the … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

The Great Recession, Debt Growth, and Economic Policy

Look no further than the latest Flow of Funds data from the Federal Reserve Board to get a snapshot of what’s happened in the U.S. economy during the new millennium. Because “credit is the mother’s milk of the economy” let’s … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged | 2 Comments

Trafigura on oil outlook – FT

The FT’s Neil Hume speaks to Jeremy Weir, chief executive of Trafigura – one of the world’s biggest oil traders – about the outlook for the market and the price of oil. ► Subscribe to the Financial Times on YouTube: … Continue reading

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Yield Curve Flattens Back To Election Day Low

The 10-year minus 2-year yield spread closed today at 1.12 basis points, back to the election day low.   All the steepening of the yield curve since the election day, widening out to 1.34 in December,  has vanished. We don’t think … Continue reading

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A Country Off Sides Politically

Is it just us or do you feel the same political angst that seems to be pervasive throughout the country that we do?   Things not only feel surreal but there seems to be a prevailing sense of eeriness haunting our … Continue reading

Posted in Policy, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund spread came in 8 bps last week probably on the back of a new poll showing the centrist. Emmanuel Macron, gaining ground. Macron is opening it up in second round polling, 30 points ahead of Le Pen,  but … Continue reading

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US Sector ETF Performance – March 24

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Global Risk Monitor – March 24

Click on table to enlarge and for better resolution

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A Few Thoughts On Why Health Care Went Down

OK, comrades, let’s check our partisanship at the door and deal with some real analysis on the health care bill that just went down in flames. Here are a few of our thoughts on why the Trump/Ryan healthcare bill to … Continue reading

Posted in Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 16 Comments