Category Archives: Equity

A Note From A GMM Reader…

Passing on a note (email) we just received from a Global Macro Monitor (GMM) reader, who is vacationing on the beach in Mexico.   By the way, he is not a free rider.  He made a nice contribution to GMM (see … Continue reading

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S&P500’s Five Hottest First Two Months Since 1950

The final trade is in for February and the S&P500 is up 11.07 percent in the first two months of the year.  It is the fourth strongest start for the S&P since 1950. The table shows that such strong Jan/Feb … Continue reading

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Doji City At The 200-day

Total indecision in the S&P 500 price action at the 200-day moving average. Very similar to past short-term peaks but if it were that easy,  we’d all be eating caviar on our yachts. Impressive that market doesn’t break.  No sellers. … Continue reading

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This Day In Financial History – Jan 17

From the great Jason Zweig January 17: 1991: As the U.S. military blasts Baghdad and Kuwait, driving back Saddam Husseins invading troops, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shoots up 4.6% to close at 2623.51. http://www.history.navy.mil/wars/datesjan.htm; http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/cron; http://www.desert-storm.com/War/chronology.html; http://averages.dowjones.com   1946: Slow down, … Continue reading

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This Day In Financial History – Jan 16

From the great Jason Zweig January 16: 1991: The Persian Gulf war begins (at 7 p.m., Eastern Time) as the U.S. transforms Operation Desert Shield into Operation Desert Storm by launching its aerial bombardment of Baghdad and Kuwait. http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Aug2000/n08082000_20008088.html; http://www.desert-storm.com/War/chronology.htmlContinue reading

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The S&P Is In Doji City – Key Short-term Levels

What a Dragonfly Doji Indicates When it forms at the bottom of a downtrend, the dragonfly doji is considered a reliable indication of trend reversal. This is because the price hit a support level during the trading day, hinting that sellers … Continue reading

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Crude Testing Critical Support…Will Stocks Follow?

The near WTI futures price is down 21 percent since peaking on October 3rd as traders front ran the Iranian oil sanctions, which went in to place this week.   Fearing spiking oil prices, the U.S. granted waivers to eight of … Continue reading

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Why The 2018 Stock Market Corrections Are Different

Just a quick note and some data to bolster our last post and concern that Treasury yields are not coming in  during this stock market correction. The table illustrates that the this year’s two S&P 10 percent corrections have coincided … Continue reading

Posted in Equity, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 33 Comments

Tail Event Day: -3.29% S&P500 and +1.7 bps 10-year Yield

Something is rotten in the U.S. bond market, which is irritating the stock market, to say, the very least. Today’s 3.29 percent flop in the S&P500, coupled with a 1.7 bps rise in the 10-year yield, is very rare, and … Continue reading

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Asset Prices Divorced From Economic Reality More Than Ever

You would never know it listening to the market cheerleaders but asset prices, both real and financial, are, once again, at extreme valuation levels relative to the trend economy.  The valuation reality coupled with the prevailing, but false, “don’t worry” … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Equity, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 28 Comments