Category Archives: Fed

Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

Our good friend, King David, just forwarded this Bloomberg headline to remind us of a post we made back in 2018, which we have reposted below.  Maybe, or maybe not, but you should have the following analysis in your quiver, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

At Least Some Things Never Change

With the markets unmoored from historical reality (along with half the country, by the way) and valuations at historic and unprecedented extremes, it’s refreshing to see some things don’t change, such as the painful short squeeze taking place in the … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Fed | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The United Socialist States of America (USSA)

You’d think the Fed governors would have the sense the political problem they are creating for themselves.  Pumping up the stock market — supporting corporate bonds will do that —  while Main Street suffers is a recipe for sweeping changes … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 12 Comments

U.S. Treasury Borrowing & QE Forever

The U.S. Treasury recently released the December monthly statement, which put us to work crunching the data.  Note the Treasury is on an October-September fiscal year.  We are using calendar years in our analysis. Federal Borrowing From The Public The … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

American Democracy In A Bear Market

…As partisans have drifted apart geographically and ideologically, they’ve become more hostile toward each other. In 1960, less than 5 percent of Democrats and Republicans said they’d be unhappy if their children married someone from the other party; today, 35 … Continue reading

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The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion

We should be on vacation but it never fails that volatility spikes as soon as we leave our desk.   It must be the Ides Of August. Wait, it is.  Et tu Brutal! Nevertheless, we can’t help ourselves and have to … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Predictions Market On Fed Nominees

Prediction markets not pricing the confirmation of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board.  Stay tuned.  

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BFTP: The Biggest Risk At The Fed

BFTP = Blast From The Past It’s now been more than a year since this post.   We can’t take a victory lap on such nonsense but we will say, “we told you so.”   The consequences are gonna be … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

QOTD: More On Moore

QOTD = Quote of the Day Memo to Senate: Just Say No …today the president nominates Stephen Moore to be a Fed governor. Steve is a perfectly amiable guy, but he does not have the intellectual gravitas for this important … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments