Monthly Archives: January 2023

The Fed’s Game Of Chicken With The Stock Market

The following chart suggests the stock market still has an outsized influence on the economy.  In theory, the market capitalization to GDP ratio should be a mean reverting time series.   We don’t know for certain, but we suspect there is … Continue reading

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Month In Review In Charts – January

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QOTD: Stock Market Logic

QOTD = Quote of the Day What a great alt-definition of George Soros’ Reflexivity

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Weekend Chart Fest – January 28

U.S. GDP Surprises To Upside, Big Inventory Build Global Sector PMIs & Margin Pressures Global Shipping Costs Shrinking Labor Forces Strong Labor Markets India Rising China’s Excess Savings Firepower China’s Recovery Driving Base Metals Lithium Mining Peak Gasoline Demand U.S. … Continue reading

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Week In Review In Charts – January 27

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QOTD: Korea’s Birth Strike

QOTD: Quote of the Day South Korea faces an existential crisis with a plunging birth rate.  The country has the lowest fertility rate in the world, reaching the “dead cross,” when deaths outnumbered births, in 2020,  a decade earlier than expected. … Continue reading

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S&P500 Key Levels – January 27

The S&P500 did all the right things this week, closing at its high for the month/year, making a new intraday high for the month, and breaking above its downtrend line.  As we noted last week, the stock index is trading … Continue reading

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Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review: January 27

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FOTD: E pluribus unum

FOTD:  Factoid of the Day This is hard to believe, but ZME has high cred ratings.  In NYC, there are more Italians than in Rome, more Irish than in Dublin, and more Jews than in Tel Aviv. –  ZME Science … Continue reading

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Less Than 50% Recession Odds |Jason Furman

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