Category Archives: China

China’s Industrial Output Plunges, GDP Headed For First Contraction On Record

China’s industrial output fell more than expected as the coronavirus shutdown factories, across the nation.  Industrial output fell13.5% in January and February from a year earlier, versus a median estimate for a 3% contraction. Retail sales fell 20.5% in the … Continue reading

Posted in China, Coronavirus, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

COTD: Coronavirus Risk To Manufacturing

The holiday is over, but few people are back in offices and factories…the effects of covid-19 will be like those of SARS in 2003: a sharp shock to Chinese growth, followed by a strong rebound. But SARS may not be a … Continue reading

Posted in China, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Coronavirus: It’s The Second Derivative, Stupid!

Double yikes.   Arrest this beast!  Please! On a business trip meeting with many firms with huge exposure to China.  Concern in their community definitely growing but still a bit clueless about the seriousness of the growing crisis.  I give … Continue reading

Posted in China, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus

Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame.  It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 24 Comments

Coronavirus Spreading To Heart of China Manufacturing

BREAKING: Shantou, a city in Guangdong province with nearly 5.5 million people, will be put on total lockdown from midnight — BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) January 26, 2020 Coronavirus scare starting to hit big manufacturing cities and is definitely going to … Continue reading

Posted in China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

COTD: China’s Social Credit Score System

COTD:  Chart of the Day Background: The Social Credit System (Chinese: 社会信用体系; pinyin: shèhuì xìnyòng tǐxì) is a national reputation system being developed by the Chinese government. The program initiated regional trials in 2009, before launching a national pilot with eight credit scoring firms in 2014. In 2018, these … Continue reading

Posted in China, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

It’s Always About The Treasury Flows

We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings.   Our analysis may also … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Welcome To The Forever Trade War

Are you surprised?  We’re not (see our repost below). Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. #China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk … Continue reading

Posted in China, Trade War, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

China Still Looking For A Rollback

We posted our,  Roll back: The Verb China Is Looking For,  two months ago and China is still looking for a rollback on some of the tariffs that have already been implemented. What President Trump said is not what the markets expect. But … Continue reading

Posted in China, Trade War, Uncategorized | Tagged | 2 Comments

China Is Now The World’s Largest Official Creditor

Hard to believe the transformation of China over the past forty years. Just before Deng Xiaoping led a large Chinese delegation in 1974 to a special session of the United Nations,  the story goes, the government made a frantic search through … Continue reading

Posted in China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments