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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Category Archives: China
China’s Industrial Output Plunges, GDP Headed For First Contraction On Record
China’s industrial output fell more than expected as the coronavirus shutdown factories, across the nation. Industrial output fell13.5% in January and February from a year earlier, versus a median estimate for a 3% contraction. Retail sales fell 20.5% in the … Continue reading
COTD: Coronavirus Risk To Manufacturing
The holiday is over, but few people are back in offices and factories…the effects of covid-19 will be like those of SARS in 2003: a sharp shock to Chinese growth, followed by a strong rebound. But SARS may not be a … Continue reading
Coronavirus: It’s The Second Derivative, Stupid!
Double yikes. Arrest this beast! Please! On a business trip meeting with many firms with huge exposure to China. Concern in their community definitely growing but still a bit clueless about the seriousness of the growing crisis. I give … Continue reading
The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus
Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame. It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Coronavirus, Supply shock
24 Comments
Coronavirus Spreading To Heart of China Manufacturing
BREAKING: Shantou, a city in Guangdong province with nearly 5.5 million people, will be put on total lockdown from midnight — BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) January 26, 2020 Coronavirus scare starting to hit big manufacturing cities and is definitely going to … Continue reading
COTD: China’s Social Credit Score System
COTD: Chart of the Day Background: The Social Credit System (Chinese: 社会信用体系; pinyin: shèhuì xìnyòng tǐxì) is a national reputation system being developed by the Chinese government. The program initiated regional trials in 2009, before launching a national pilot with eight credit scoring firms in 2014. In 2018, these … Continue reading
It’s Always About The Treasury Flows
We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings. Our analysis may also … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized
Tagged Debt, Deficit, Market Debt, TIC, Treasury Flows
1 Comment
Welcome To The Forever Trade War
Are you surprised? We’re not (see our repost below). Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. #China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk … Continue reading
China Still Looking For A Rollback
We posted our, Roll back: The Verb China Is Looking For, two months ago and China is still looking for a rollback on some of the tariffs that have already been implemented. What President Trump said is not what the markets expect. But … Continue reading
China Is Now The World’s Largest Official Creditor
Hard to believe the transformation of China over the past forty years. Just before Deng Xiaoping led a large Chinese delegation in 1974 to a special session of the United Nations, the story goes, the government made a frantic search through … Continue reading
Posted in China, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Growth, World's largest of Official Creditors, World's List of Billionaires
3 Comments
