Monthly Archives: June 2019

When 50 Percent Of U.S. Households Were Insolvent

Not that long ago, by the way. My good friend, David Jones, sent over some new data this past weekend.  We have been busy. Our First Take Not a lot of prose tonight as we will let the data and … Continue reading

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Doubtful ECB Can Prevent Recession – O. Blanchard

Take a few and listen to O., well worth your time.  Olivier Blanchard, the former IMF chief economist and part of our elite “One Smart Dude Club (OSDC)”, speaks on the ECB’s monetary policy and the tools it has available … Continue reading

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S&P500 Key Levels

Snoozefest until the FOMC on Wednesday.  Lots of Doji candles reflecting traders don’t wanna do jack all.  Volume running at about 90 percent of the 10-day moving average. Market expecting no rate cut, though a 20 percent probability is not … Continue reading

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Are Italian Mini-Bots Coming For You?

Are the ‘bots about to start trading Italian mini-BOTs? Talk of a parallel currency in Rome is spooking some in the analyst community. A proposal is being kicked around to issue small-denomination bonds — so-called mini-BOTs (short-term treasury bills) —  … Continue reading

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S&P500 Key Levels

After rallying 6.66 percent from the bear trap low last Monday to yesterday’s high of 2910.16,  the S&P is now consolidating that big move.  The ‘bots have mastered the art of the bear trap.   F**k wads! The 50-day moving average … Continue reading

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Coming To The Louvre

“Siri, what is art?” pic.twitter.com/gSSA1JXCxR — Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) June 11, 2019

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What To Expect When America Starts Electing

It’s 511 days to the 2020 Presidential election and we sense a total disconnect between the movement in the polling data and market expectations of the outcome.  It reminds us of our conversation with a hedge fund manager one month … Continue reading

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Expected Fed Funds Rate (Lower Band)

We will try to post this on a daily basis showing the expected value of the Federal Funds rate (lower band) at each of the FOMC meetings over the next year and recent changes in the market expectations. The data … Continue reading

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Jobs Market Weaker/Risks Higher Than Perceived

Last month we noted the divergence of nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and the employment data illustrated in the updated table below, which drove our skepticism about the labor market and overall strength of the economy at the same time many were … Continue reading

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All Things Macro

This is good stuff, folks.  Joe, who is a friend, easily makes it into our elite “one smart dude” club.   Click on the video.  It’s well worth your time and will make you smarter.

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