Tag Archives: Bear Market

American Democracy In A Bear Market

…As partisans have drifted apart geographically and ideologically, they’ve become more hostile toward each other. In 1960, less than 5 percent of Democrats and Republicans said they’d be unhappy if their children married someone from the other party; today, 35 … Continue reading

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How Far Can The Stock Market Run?

Updated:  October 15 Very little to the upside.  Very much to the downside. Macro Valuation Metrics Lots of incoming over our S&P Shooting Star post, most of which can mostly be summed up to the effect, “Why so bearish?” Seriously?  … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 72 Comments

Are Stocks In A Bear Market?

Technically, no. Spiritually?  Nor sure, but definitely, there’s is something happening here. What is ain’t exactly clear. S&P Flat For Past 17 Months Even with all the Strum und Drang since the massive volatility shock of January 2018 — which includes … Continue reading

Posted in S&P500, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 9 Comments

Swan Lake – June 26

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM The fish weren’t biting on Swan Lake today.   The … Continue reading

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QOTD: Paul Tudor Jones

Note, no mention of “recession”, the trigger for the cheerleaders.  The bear market of    1962 and 1987 occurred with robust economic growth. You look at every bear market and they’ve always basically occurred because of an uptick in inflation … Continue reading

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The JFK-Trump S&P Analog Roadmap – BTFFD

We have had lots of requests to update our JFK-Trump S&P500 analog.  Here you go. The Kennedy-Trump S&P500 analog is tracking, on a directional basis, relatively well, with the Trump S&P now 3.56 percent below the JFK S&P, 347 trading … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 16 Comments

Can The Bears Deliver The Knockout Punch?

Yes, we believe so. Muhammad Ali knocks out Cleveland Williams at the Astrodome, Houston, 1966. pic.twitter.com/GIjRz3Ce2H — History In Pictures (@HistoryInPix) February 26, 2018 Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next week, but sometime this year the S&P500 will break into … Continue reading

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Textbook Progression To A Bear Market

OK.  Not a bear market quite yet. The official level of the S&P500 for the current sell-off to morph into a bear market (down 20 percent from local high) is 2298.30, down 14.92 percent from today’s close.  The official correction … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 21 Comments

Jeremy Grantham: ‘No market for young men’

Be sure to catch Johnathan Burton’s piece on MarketWatch.  Here’s the upshot: “This is no market for young men,” Grantham said. “At least us old men remember what a real bear market is like, and the young men haven’t got … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Whales | Tagged , | 2 Comments