Author Archives: macromon

QOTD: Adaptive Expectations

QOTD = Quote of the Day There’s a tendency for markets to focus on the present and extrapolate it forever – Olivier Blanchard

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Beating Shipping Containers Into Penthouses

They shall beat their swords into plowshares, spears into pruning hooks, [and shipping containers into homes] – Book of Isaiah (paraphrased). According to shipping analytics firm Windward, 20% of the world’s roughly 9,000 active container ships are currently sitting in traffic … Continue reading

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The Smoking Crack Spread

Right now, the traditional relationship between crude and refined products is broken. WTI is anchored around $100-$110 a barrel, suggesting that — in barrel terms — gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices shouldn’t be much higher, once you add the average refining margin.  In reality, they are a lot more … Continue reading

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County Median Home Prices

The map [below] allows you to see the median home price for each county. Applying the House Price Index growth from FHFA to the latest housing data from the American Community Survey (ACS), we calculated a median home value for … Continue reading

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Nonlinear Thinking: How Robotic Surgery Works

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Go With The Deep Flow

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The Washington Sausage Factory

Click here for better resolution of the above graphic.

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Where Is The Neutral Fed Funds Rate?

True Confessions:  We don’t know, and neither does anyone else, including Chairman Powell and the FOMC.  What Is the Neutral Rate? The neutral rate is the theoretical federal funds rate at which the stance of Federal Reserve monetary policy is … Continue reading

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CK Chart Sunday

Since CK loved charts, we will honor her with a weekly (consistent as we can) chart series with addition of a few of our comments. 1. Crypto Crash  Rising speculative asset values that are not backed by production are inflationary … Continue reading

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Larry Summers On Inflation

Rate hikes can slow the flow of endogenous money (market and credit-based), but there is too much base money (central bank created) in the global economy.  Much of the supply chain disruptions are from too much demand swamping supply capacity.  … Continue reading

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