Author Archives: macromon

CK Chart Funday

1. Crack Spreads At Record High The traditional relationship between crude and refined products is broken. WTI is anchored around $100-$110 a barrel, suggesting that — in barrel terms — gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices shouldn’t be much higher, once … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Are Wage Pressures Structural?

We vote both cyclical and structural. When it rains, it pours.  The COVID and Ukraine shock has ripped the veil from the “Wizard of Oz” economy.   Follow the crypto brick road.  Deglobalization Cometh Americans are beginning to experience what a … Continue reading

Posted in Inflation/Deflation | 5 Comments

QOTD: Adaptive Expectations

QOTD = Quote of the Day There’s a tendency for markets to focus on the present and extrapolate it forever – Olivier Blanchard

Posted in Quote of the Day, Quotes | Leave a comment

Beating Shipping Containers Into Penthouses

They shall beat their swords into plowshares, spears into pruning hooks, [and shipping containers into homes] – Book of Isaiah (paraphrased). According to shipping analytics firm Windward, 20% of the world’s roughly 9,000 active container ships are currently sitting in traffic … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

The Smoking Crack Spread

Right now, the traditional relationship between crude and refined products is broken. WTI is anchored around $100-$110 a barrel, suggesting that — in barrel terms — gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices shouldn’t be much higher, once you add the average refining margin.  In reality, they are a lot more … Continue reading

Posted in Crude Oil | Leave a comment

County Median Home Prices

The map [below] allows you to see the median home price for each county. Applying the House Price Index growth from FHFA to the latest housing data from the American Community Survey (ACS), we calculated a median home value for … Continue reading

Posted in Housing | Tagged | Leave a comment

Nonlinear Thinking: How Robotic Surgery Works

Posted in Nonlinear Thinking | Leave a comment

Go With The Deep Flow

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Washington Sausage Factory

Click here for better resolution of the above graphic.

Posted in Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Where Is The Neutral Fed Funds Rate?

True Confessions:  We don’t know, and neither does anyone else, including Chairman Powell and the FOMC.  What Is the Neutral Rate? The neutral rate is the theoretical federal funds rate at which the stance of Federal Reserve monetary policy is … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment