Category Archives: Emerging Markets

Getting Back Pre-COVID GDP Levels

Posted on April 7, 2021 by macromon

Nice chart from Bloomberg. Chile’s almost there, baby! h/t CK The U.S. may be. If Q1 GDP grew at an annualized compounded rate of 10.2 percent (2.45 percent q/q), the U.S. economy will back to its pre-COVID end of quarter … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Emerging Markets | 1 Comment

Could Mounting Crises Sink Brazil’s Bolsonaro?

Posted on June 24, 2020 by macromon

Even with a political career full of controversy and condemnation, Jair Bolsonaro built a new coalition of voters and won the Brazilian presidential election in a landslide. Now, he’ll need every bit of fervent support he’s gained as a cascade … Continue reading →

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A life of boom and bust: Can Argentina break the cycle?

Posted on May 31, 2019 by macromon

A century ago, Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world. But crisis after crisis has earned it the dubious distinction of being the only nation ever to regress to developing country status. With hyperinflation, devaluations and … Continue reading →

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Venezuela: Failed Petrostate & The Roosevelt Corollary

Posted on February 12, 2019 by macromon

Interesting piece in The Hill yesterday on Venezuela by former U.S. Senator Judd Gregg, Venezuela, the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary.   A must read for those interested in all things Vennie. He refers to the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe … Continue reading →

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Major EU powers recognise Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president

Posted on February 4, 2019 by macromon

One morning closer to Venezuela’s economic “morning-after-plan.”

Posted in Emerging Markets, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Venezuela, Debt, and Gunboat Diplomacy 2.0

Posted on January 27, 2019 by macromon

Traders bought up Venezuelan bonds last week on the announcement of the U.S. administration’s policy shift to delegitimize President Nicolás Maduro and recognize the opposition leader,  Juan Guaidó. When was the last major sovereign debt restructuring in Venezuela? The Brady … Continue reading →

Posted in Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

A life of boom and bust: Can Argentina break the cycle?

Posted on November 30, 2018 by macromon

A century ago, Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world. But crisis after crisis has earned it the dubious distinction of being the only nation ever to regress to developing country status. With hyperinflation, devaluations and … Continue reading →

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The Interest Rate Paradox In Emerging Markets

Posted on November 25, 2018 by macromon

In advanced economies, interest rates fall during recessions as investors replace risky assets such as stocks with safe assets such as bonds and cash. This makes fiscal stimulus easier. Everywhere else, recessions create fears of debt default or debt monetization … Continue reading →

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Crude Reality For Emerging Markets

Posted on October 2, 2018 by macromon

This chart comes to us via the “Polish Swish,” known for his nuttin’ but net baseline jumper.  It illustrates the local pain of rising oil prices in a few selected emerging markets. Crude oil is priced in dollars, and countries … Continue reading →

Posted in Crude Oil, Currency, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Posted on September 24, 2018 by macromon

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 43 Comments