Category Archives: Emerging Markets

Venezuela: Failed Petrostate & The Roosevelt Corollary

Interesting piece in The Hill yesterday on Venezuela by former U.S. Senator Judd Gregg, Venezuela, the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary.   A must read for those interested in all things Vennie. He refers to the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe … Continue reading

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Major EU powers recognise Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president

One morning closer to Venezuela’s economic “morning-after-plan.”

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Venezuela, Debt, and Gunboat Diplomacy 2.0

Traders bought up Venezuelan bonds last week on the announcement of the U.S. administration’s policy shift to delegitimize President Nicolás Maduro and recognize the opposition leader,  Juan Guaidó. When was the last major sovereign debt restructuring in Venezuela? The Brady … Continue reading

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A life of boom and bust: Can Argentina break the cycle?

A century ago, Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world. But crisis after crisis has earned it the dubious distinction of being the only nation ever to regress to developing country status. With hyperinflation, devaluations and … Continue reading

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The Interest Rate Paradox In Emerging Markets

In advanced economies, interest rates fall during recessions as investors replace risky assets such as stocks with safe assets such as bonds and cash. This makes fiscal stimulus easier. Everywhere else, recessions create fears of debt default or debt monetization … Continue reading

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Crude Reality For Emerging Markets

This chart comes to us via the “Polish Swish,” known for his nuttin’ but net baseline jumper.  It illustrates the local pain of rising oil prices in a few selected emerging markets. Crude oil is priced in dollars, and countries … Continue reading

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The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 40 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Asian markets versus other developing economies – FT

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“Yield-to-Death”: Tepper’s First EM Investment

“What is the yield-to-death?” Those words spoken by the legendary hedge fund king, and new owner of the Carolina Panthers, David Tepper, to my salesperson in 1993 when we were trying to convince him to buy a chunk of Peruvian … Continue reading

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