Category Archives: Crude Oil

The Smoking Crack Spread

Posted on May 26, 2022 by macromon

Right now, the traditional relationship between crude and refined products is broken. WTI is anchored around $100-$110 a barrel, suggesting that — in barrel terms — gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel prices shouldn’t be much higher, once you add the average refining margin.  In reality, they are a lot more … Continue reading →

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“I Have Never Seen Such A Strong Market”

Posted on April 26, 2020 by macromon

For oil storage. Watch the CEO of Nordic American Tankers (NAT) quote Cramer $70k per day to lease an oil tanker.  Buy spot/sell forward and that arb should drive the forward/futures premium relatively close to the cost of carry. Traded … Continue reading →

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Deflationistas About To Go Apeshit Over The Collapse Of Oil Prices

Posted on March 7, 2020 by macromon

The Saudi-Russian Oil War is going to set the deflationistas hair on fire.  What is wrong with the relative price of oil collapsing? A big flop in the price of a headline commodity almost always brings out a deflation panic.  … Continue reading →

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Perspective In The Permian

Posted on January 16, 2019 by macromon

For a bit of perspective, the entire state of California, which recently beat out the United Kingdom as the fifth biggest economy in the world, has around 10 active drilling rigs. The Permian Basin alone has nearly 500. Exxon Mobil … Continue reading →

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Why is Canadian oil so cheap? – Financial Post

Posted on November 27, 2018 by macromon

$10 Handle On WCS Wow!  Canadian crude traded with a $10 handle! That is frickin’ stunning.  Production is stranded and nowhere to go.  Can’t use oil tankers for storage as they can’t get it to port. Here’s to wishing we … Continue reading →

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Crude Testing Critical Support…Will Stocks Follow?

Posted on November 8, 2018 by macromon

The near WTI futures price is down 21 percent since peaking on October 3rd as traders front ran the Iranian oil sanctions, which went in to place this week.   Fearing spiking oil prices, the U.S. granted waivers to eight of … Continue reading →

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Lavender Wave Still Cometh

Posted on October 9, 2018 by macromon

Massive Lavender Wave Coming In November We believe there will be a massive “lavender wave,” in the November midterms.  Lavender is the color combination of pink and blue. …In elections, women are also more likely to vote in higher numbers and … Continue reading →

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Crude Reality For Emerging Markets

Posted on October 2, 2018 by macromon

This chart comes to us via the “Polish Swish,” known for his nuttin’ but net baseline jumper.  It illustrates the local pain of rising oil prices in a few selected emerging markets. Crude oil is priced in dollars, and countries … Continue reading →

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Rising Oil Prices And Midterm Elections

Posted on September 25, 2018 by macromon

The price of crude oil is up 36 percent since President Trump took office, squeezing the consumer at the pump and offsetting most of the personal net income gains from the tax cuts. The rise in gas prices has cannibalized … Continue reading →

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The Year In Review

Posted on December 31, 2017 by macromon

An incredible year in the markets. Here’s a quick snapshot: Fixed-income – The high yielders significantly outperformed; – Greece 10-year yield down 300 bps in 2017; – China 10-year moved 85 bps higher to around 4 percent; – The U.S. … Continue reading →

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