The Year In Review

An incredible year in the markets. Here’s a quick snapshot:

– The high yielders significantly outperformed;
– Greece 10-year yield down 300 bps in 2017;
– China 10-year moved 85 bps higher to around 4 percent;
– The U.S. yield curve pancaked with the 10-2’s spread 73 bps lower;
– Junk tighter with the dash for trash outperforming. CCC in 141 bps;
– Greece and Portugal 10-year tightened bigly against the German bund;

– Dollar index down almost 10 percent;
– Euro/$ up over 14 percent;
– Dollar/Argie peso up 17 percent due to inflation differentials. Ditto for Turkish lira;
– Dollar/Korea 11 ½ percent weaker. Should relieve some protectionist pressure.

– 2017 was the year of emerging markets catch-up trade;
– Argentina up 78 percent in local currency, over 50 percent in dollar terms;
– Hang Seng up 36 percent;
– Russia flat;

Other Risk Indicators
– 2017 was a big year for tech;
– U.S. semiconductor ETF up over 36 percent;
– Dow up 25 percent, almost putting in Top 10 annual return;


– Energy ETF down 4 percent even though commodity up over 10 percent;

– Lumber futures up over 40 percent on protectionist measures and natural  disasters;
– Industrial metals performed well. Copper futures up over 30 percent;
– Iron ore made a nice second-half
– Crude up 12 percent;
– Grains traded horribly;
– Natural gas regressed to mean after the big gains of 2016.


This entry was posted in Bonds, Commodities, Crude Oil, Currency, Equities, Uncategorized, Week in Review and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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