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Category Archives: Capital Flows
Foreign CenBanks Continue To Sell Treasury Securities
As we suspected in our last post on this subject, We also have no doubt Japan’s holdings are down from the latest observation in July. – GMM, Sep 29th Japan, the country (data is aggregated), sold $34.5 billion of its … Continue reading
Posted in Capital Flows, China, Sovereign Debt
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What Are They Thinking?
Stocks are reeling from the following headline. The White House is weighing some curbs on U.S. investments in China, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC. This discussion includes possibly blocking all U.S. financial investments in Chinese companies, the … Continue reading
Posted in Capital Flows, China, Uncategorized
Tagged Capital Flow restrictions, China
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Emerging Market Sub-Zero Corporates
Stunning. Kind of gums up the valuation models, no? What have the CenBanks wrought? The amount of negative-yielding corporate bonds almost tripled to $109 billion from a week ago Sovereign bonds with sub-zero rates climbed about 50% to $136 billion … Continue reading
Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind
At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market, The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0, which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading
Free Ride Is Over: China & Japan Bailing On Treasuries
We had a request to look at the annual change in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as an addendum to our post from last night. It’s clear the two largest foreign creditors to the United States government are pulling … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Capital Flows, China, Japan, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Foreign creditors, Japan, U.S. Budget Deficits
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The New FX Model: PMI Differentials?
One of Australia’s finest, and best market analyst, Greg McKenna, and more important, our good friend, posits a new exchange rate determination model: PMI differentials. We cut our teeth as a young economist on Anne Krueger‘s book, Exchange Rate Determination. … Continue reading
Posted in Capital Flows, Exchange Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Anne Krueger, Exchange Rate Determination, FX Rates, PMI, PMI Differentials
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The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market
Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading
Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?
Here is a little teaser for our coming post on the Treasury market, which should be out tomorrow. The latest data is from the Flow of Funds just posted by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Note, less gold (Fed) and … Continue reading
Posted in Capital Flows, Charts, Debt, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged Central Banks, Deficits, QE, Who is Funding the budget deficit
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EM Debt Flows
Hat Tip: @tracyalloway
Posted in Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized
Tagged Debt Flows, Emerging Markets
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Global Macro Monitor 