Tag Archives: Fiscal Deficit

Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind

Posted on November 12, 2018 by macromon

At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market,  The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0,  which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments

Markets Want More FED “Crack” – Harry Dent

Posted on April 4, 2012 by macromon

Harry Dent does a pretty good job in ‘splaining today’s risk sell-off, in our opinion. We’re beginning to sense, however, the markets are awakening to the fact the U.S. government is going to have a funding problem. As the world … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Gold, Japan, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why the sovereign debt crisis is only in the third inning

Posted on November 1, 2011 by macromon

And the heavy hitters have yet to be tested.  Click table to enlarge. (click here if table is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Components of the 10-Year Treasury Yield

Posted on April 13, 2011 by macromon

An interesting chart from the IMF showing the components of the 10-year Treasury yield.   Note how oxymoronic credit risk (in pink)  crept into the “risk-free” 10-year rate starting around the collapse of Bear Sterns.   The IMF opines on what has … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

While Washington (and the Fed) Fiddle…..

Posted on April 8, 2011 by macromon

Sorry about the hiatus.  We’ve been working on a special project that could be big and will share when and if possible. Thought we’d start by re-posting our gas price sensitivity analysis to show the cost of the U.S. government’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Commodities, Muni Bonds | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Muni Meltdown: All Eyes on California

Posted on November 16, 2010 by macromon

As the world focuses on Ireland, the hammering of the U.S. muni market continued today even as the treasury bond market rallied sharply.  As the case with any sell-off, it is difficult to discern fundamentally why the market is in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Politics | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment