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Monthly Archives: July 2011
Week in Review: Deal, Now What?
Almost everything that happened last week is irrelevant given what looks like a U.S. debt deal. What we’re watching is how the relief rally holds and whether the Friday’s poor GDP data was a game changer. Looking under the surface … Continue reading
Global Trend Indicators
(click here if tables are not observable)
Posted in Global Trend Indicators
Tagged bonds, Commodities, Gold, Moving Averages, Oil, Stocks
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Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 5
Only one of the Four Horsemen of the our Armageddon Trade is misbehaving, that is, not confirming by moving in the wrong direction. Stocks, which, some have touted as the new safe haven, have been hit the most and dollar … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold
Tagged Arnageddon Trade, bonds, dollar, Gold, Repo, Stocks, T-Bills
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Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 4
Looks like the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse spent the day watering their horses. Not much happening in our Armageddon Trade today. Gold, which is trading poorly, bounced off the lows and stocks reversed a decent rally to close lower. … Continue reading
Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 3
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were split on the Armageddon Trade today. Gold and the dollar diverged and were non-confirming, though stocks got hammered and took out some short-term technicals. Bonds rallied off lows to close essentially flat. … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Charts, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Armageddon Trade, bonds, dollar, Gold, Stocks
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Chart of the Day: T-Bill Yields
Somebody’s selling. That is a big move in a big market. The “freight from safety” trade on fears of credit downgrade may just be enough to light a fire under the arse of the politicos. We had a huge capital … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Black Swan Watch, T-Bill Yields
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Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 2
Still no panic, but lower. The dollar took the biggest beating and looks ready to take out its May lows. Only T-Bonds of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse moved contrary to what we call the Armageddon trade, where gold … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold
Tagged Armageddon Trade, bonds, dollar, Gold, Stocks
2 Comments
Plan B: President Clinton’s 1995 Mexico Bailout
It’s hard to fathom that the U.S. will default on its debt, but in the event Congress can’t come to an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, we have little doubt President Obama will circumvent Congress and invoke Section 4 … Continue reading
Monitoring the Armageddon Trade
The following charts illustrate today’s performance of “The Four Horsemen” of our Armageddon trade, which we posted earlier. That is, the markets were monitoring for large concurrent moves which would signal a loss of confidence in the U.S. government and … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Charts, Dollar, Equities, Gold
Tagged Armageddon Trade, bonds, dollar, Gold, Stocks
2 Comments
Apple’s No Debt Ceiling Leads Market Higher
Apple is doing the heavy lifting leading the market off its opening lows. It appears the market is repricing Apple to a “permanently higher plateau.” Yikes! Careful there, Mr. Fisher! Seriously, we read lots of reports over the weekend about … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 