Category Archives: Charts

What Keeps The Credit Markets Up At Night

Posted on July 15, 2019 by

Credit investors rank their concerns, which are almost identical to ours.  That makes us a little nervous to be bearish.  Prefer to catch the off-radar incoming. Hat Tip:  Chi @chigrl  

Posted in Charts, Tail Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

President Trump Is Not Your Father’s Conservative

Posted on July 12, 2019 by

Summary The U.S. government’s cumulative monthly deficits in the first 29 months of the Trump Administration has almost doubled from the prior 29 months The sum of monthly deficits totaled $1.08 trillion during the period Sep. ’14 to Jan ’17 … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Charts, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Beware Of Retrofitting Fundamentals To Price Action

Posted on April 1, 2019 by

See our post, Newton’s Q1 Law Of Motion For The S&P,  by clicking here   The past few weeks were a classic exercise in how markets tend to “retrofit” price action to their expectations of economic fundamentals and illustrates the … Continue reading →

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Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?

Posted on September 20, 2018 by

Here is a little teaser for our coming post on the Treasury market, which should be out tomorrow.  The latest data is from the Flow of Funds just posted by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Note,  less gold (Fed) and … Continue reading →

Posted in Capital Flows, Charts, Debt, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Italy’s North-South Economic Divide – France24

Posted on May 9, 2018 by

Italy 10-year closed at 1.88 percent today,  6.7 bps wider versus the 10-year bund for the week, but still 14 bps tighter year-to-date. The Italian 10-year government bond is 112 bps through the U.S. 10-year note yield, and the country … Continue reading →

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Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates

Posted on May 3, 2018 by

There has been a huge drain of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury market over the past few years, and may signal a structural change to how the United States finances budget deficits. The government will always find a way to … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Charts, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 36 Comments

Week In Review – February 2

Posted on February 4, 2018 by

No poetry, no prose in the Week In Review. We gave you plenty to munch on this past week and today is a holy day, Super Bowl Sunday.  We posted many warnings about the events of last week and  how … Continue reading →

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Supply (lack of ) Driven Bull Market

Posted on November 22, 2017 by

I had an interesting conversation with an economist friend this morning about inflation and excess capacity. He sees no evidence of excess capacity in the U.S. economy, including the service sector, where he cannot find, say, a plumber for hire … Continue reading →

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Five markets charts for investors – FT

Posted on November 16, 2017 by

The FT markets team’s focus this week: a Chinese stocks rally, the sovereign debt market being crowded by central banks’ bonds re-purchasing programmes, trades with zero yield climb to $11tn, and US money supply growth might mean the bull market … Continue reading →

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COTD: Emerging Markets Are The Future

Posted on October 30, 2017 by

In case you missed it,  emerging market and developing economies, based on purchasing power partity international dollars, now exceed the advanced economies (AEs).  They crossed the Rubicon in 2007 and even excluding China will exceed in the AEs next year … Continue reading →

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