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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Category Archives: Sovereign Debt
U.S. Treasury Market Borrowing & Global Foreign Savings
We were curious about how much U.S. Treasury market borrowings have increased relative to global foreign savings and whipped together the table below. We define global foreign savings here as the cumulative current account surpluses of all the world’s surplus nations. The … Continue reading
Posted in Dollar, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized
Tagged global foreign savings, QE, U.S. borrowing requirement, U.S. deficit
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Get Shorty, Got Shorty, Still Shorty In 10-Year Notes
Interesting chart from Bloomberg on the growing record short position by specs in 10-year note futures. Surprisingly, there has been no meaningful squeeze in the 10-year during 2018, even with the massive equity volatility shock in early February. In fact, … Continue reading
German 10-year At 47 bps As Inflation Prints 2.3 Percent
Really efficient markets, no? The Germans ECB loves a real 10-year negative carry. This is absurd and tantamount to confiscating the savings of hard working Germans. Only going to add to the country’s already rising political tensions. As Holger notes, … Continue reading
When The U.S. Government Defaulted
One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold clause cases” of the 1930s, … Continue reading
Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates
There has been a huge drain of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury market over the past few years, and may signal a structural change to how the United States finances budget deficits. The government will always find a way to … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Charts, China, Credit, Geopolitical, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized
Tagged Capital flow, Greenspan, Interest rates, U.S. Treasury bonds and notes
36 Comments
Stocks And Bonds Now Joined At The Hip
Market Recovery The U.S. stock market rallied Friday on the six bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. The S&P500 has now recovered 63.09 percent of its peak-to-low loss. We are looking for 2,805 on the S&P500 for a green … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Equities, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized
Tagged bonds, Interest rates, Stocks, U.S. Budget Deficits
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FOMC: A Big Double Cheese Non-Burger
Monetary policy history made today. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirmed it would begin its long-awaited quantitative tightening (QT). In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s … Continue reading
Posted in China, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fed, German Bund, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt
Tagged FOMC, Quantitative Tightening
2 Comments
Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt? Not Even Close.
We often hear the meme “the U.S. is the next Greece.” “The government is insolvent.” Complete nonsense. We tend to focus too much on the right side of the government’s balance sheet and not the left side — the … Continue reading
Posted in Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt
Tagged Federal land, Government Debt, National Balance Sheet
5 Comments
The Broken Bond Market
The Fed tightens on Wednesday and bonds rally. What the hay? GaveKal, Jeff Gundlach, and Jim Bianco nailed it in that every spec and their mother are/were short 10-year Treasuries. Source: Quandl (see here for interactive chart) But this is … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bond Market, Bond Yields, Bubbles, Distortions, Monetary Policy, Quantitative Easing
58 Comments
Euro Debt Constraining Growth – FT
Ralph Atkins, the FT’s capital markets editor, discusses high private sector debt levels in the eurozone with Moritz Kraemer, S&P’s chief sovereign ratings officer. Mr Kramer says Europe is ‘in for the long haul’ on debt deleveraging. For more video … Continue reading
Posted in Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Sovereign Debt
Tagged European Debt, FT, Growth
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