Category Archives: Fiscal Policy

What Are Bond Yields & Breakevens Telling Us?

Posted on October 20, 2021 by macromon

#CKStrong    Carol K.’s ANC broke above 1200 today.  Absolute Neutrophil Count (ANC ) measures a type of white blood cell that kill and digest bacteria and fungi to help the body fight infections and heal wounds. At a time … Continue reading →

Posted in Fiscal Cliff Monitor, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Magical Monetary Policy Mystery Tour

Posted on September 24, 2019 by macromon

Wow!  Just heard a so-called “banking expert” say that the Fed was reducing reserves on their balance sheet during quantitative tightening (QT), which has led to the current chaos in the overnight repo market.   Not entirely true. Asymmetric Libalibity Balance … Continue reading →

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

No Labor Infrastructure For $2 Trillion Infrastructure Spend

Posted on April 30, 2019 by macromon

Democratic congressional leaders announced Tuesday after a meeting with President Donald Trump that an agreement had been reached on the price tag for a potential infrastructure plan: $2 trillion.  — CNN We are reposting and a piece we wrote a … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

BFTP: How to Become a Trillionaire And Other Thoughts

Posted on March 12, 2019 by macromon

BTFP:  Blast From The Past Time to repost our piece from January 2017, almost two weeks before the Trump administration took power. We hit the big topics back then which are now making headlines today:  1)  Modern Monetary Theory;  2)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

A Reversal of Fortune on U.S. Fiscal and Trade Deficits to GDP

Posted on February 6, 2019 by macromon
Posted in Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Diagnosing What Ails The Market

Posted on December 17, 2018 by macromon

My father-in-law died of rectal melanoma, a disease so rare his doctors didn’t even know it existed.  He was diagnosed with having a rectal fissure.   He lived with some discomfort until I called him one night.  Slurring his words, he … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing

Posted on October 16, 2018 by macromon

Summary Largely ignored by the markets,  Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading →

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

QE’s Fading Legacy Moving Long Yields Higher

Posted on October 9, 2018 by macromon

Summary The legacy of the Fed’s QE is fading in the bond auctions For the first time in several years, SOMA did not and will not participate in any of the September or October Treasury auctions The Treasury has to … Continue reading →

Posted in Debt, Fed, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Posted on September 24, 2018 by macromon

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 43 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Posted on September 21, 2018 by macromon

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments