Tag Archives: Bond Yields

Beware Of Retrofitting Fundamentals To Price Action

Posted on April 1, 2019 by macromon

See our post, Newton’s Q1 Law Of Motion For The S&P,  by clicking here   The past few weeks were a classic exercise in how markets tend to “retrofit” price action to their expectations of economic fundamentals and illustrates the … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Charts, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Posted on September 24, 2018 by macromon

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 43 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Posted on September 21, 2018 by macromon

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Swan Lake – June 11

Posted on June 11, 2018 by macromon

We are not discussing any proposal to exit the euro. The government is determined to avoid the materialisation of market conditions that push us towards an exit in any way.  –  Giovanni Tria,  Italian finance minister, June 11 Italian and Euro … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Swan Lake – June 4

Posted on June 4, 2018 by macromon

The recovery in the European periphery continues. Sell-offs when markets are in bullish mode now seem to act as an centripetal force to move financial assets back to their central point of bullish with great velocity.  Similar to a gravity … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Long-Term Yields Break Higher

Posted on May 15, 2018 by macromon

The 10-year Treasury yield broke out and closed above a new 5-year high today. If you didn’t catch our analysis from a few weeks back why long-term interest rates were set to move higher, run don’t walk to,  Prepare For Much … Continue reading →

Posted in Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Dimon Says Prepare for 4% Yields – Bloomberg

Posted on May 7, 2018 by macromon

Wow!  It sounds like Jamie read our recent post,  Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates.   Nah, we are just on the same page. He speculates the yield curve will not invert as it did in the last tightening cycle; long-term … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, ECB, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Still No Relief From The Bond Market

Posted on March 25, 2018 by macromon

Last week the S&P500 sold down 5.95 percent. We noted in an earlier post, Why This Correction Is Different, in that the current sell-off is different from all other corrections over the past 30 years (except a special case in … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Watch These Levels

Posted on February 12, 2018 by macromon

Is that it?  Is the sell-off over, new highs on the short-tem horizon? Nobody knows.  The recovery is a process and unfolds one step tick at a time. In our last Week In Review post, we noted, Only three times … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 57 Comments

Interest Rates Starting To Bite

Posted on December 17, 2017 by macromon

We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 divie … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 20 Comments