Category Archives: Equities

Stocks Get Vertical & Vertigo

This is some chart.  Even if you assume a structural shift in valuations began when the Fed started backstopping markets after the 1987 crash, that puts the average valuation of the Wilshire Market Cap to GDP at 92.58 percent.   That’s … Continue reading

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Stock Market Returns And Presidents – Beware Of Averaging

We have warned about looking at averages (see here), especially with such skewed distributions and how a couple outliers can greatly distort this most common statistical metric. Real Life Macro Economy Example:  2019 Q1:  Average U.S. Household Wealth =  $803.3K … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Keeping Stock Market Returns In Perspective

We just want to pass on some data to keep this year’s stock rally in perspective.  We are seeing a lot super giddy behavior out there as the S&P500 makes a new all-time high but…wait for it…at record high valuations … Continue reading

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Buy, Sell, Or Hold?

Wow, Mr. Market at the 150-yard line again. Only the second time in history and everyone and their mother are all lathered up. The Week Before Christmas ‘Twas the week before Christmas,  when all through the House, the Dems were … Continue reading

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Why The Stock Bull Is A Big Meh For Most Americans

Interesting piece by the FT today that only one-third of Americans feel the benefits of the great bull market.   Only 40 percent of the population realizes stocks are up for the year.  These are tough numbers for a so-called “populist” … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Equities, Quotes, Uncategorized | Tagged | 11 Comments

Whatever Happened To “Buy Low, Sell High?”

Stock prices are very high and, clearly, Warren Buffett is not a practitioner of the “greater fool theory,” which have made many a trader short-term rich and long-term poor.  Our long-term money and view (until the market breaks) is with … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized, Whales | Tagged | 24 Comments

San Francisco Is The Tale Of Two Cities

Q:  Why does San Francisco have so many homeless? A:   Because the City has so many billionaires.  I once had a Twitter war with a Canadian, who was spewing some nonsense from a wing-nut article that San Francisco was a … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 17 Comments

Beware Of The S&P’s Doji City

In our Saturday post,  Heads Up! Friday’s Rare S&P Shooting Star Candlestick,  we pointed out the S&P500 had formed a rate shooting star Doji candlestick on Friday with price action that had been observed only once since 2010, last Halloween day. Run don’t … Continue reading

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Most Overvalued Equity Markets – IMF

October Datafest October is always a month of feasting for us macro data junkies as the IMF releases several of their annual reports and databases, such as the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR).   We … Continue reading

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How Far Can The Stock Market Run?

Updated:  October 15 Very little to the upside.  Very much to the downside. Macro Valuation Metrics Lots of incoming over our S&P Shooting Star post, most of which can mostly be summed up to the effect, “Why so bearish?” Seriously?  … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 72 Comments