Category Archives: Equities

A Long Way Down To Value

Summary The stock market has completed the first phase of a bear market with a rapid and sharp Q1 sell-off caused by massive deleveraging Stocks still need to deal with its valuation problem as well as discounting the long-term financial … Continue reading

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The Stock Market’s Gas Gauge

The stock market, as defined by the Wilshire 5000 has fallen 35.1 percent from its closing high on February 19th and has been unable to sustain a decent bounce for more than a day.   Our favorite valuation metric, stock market … Continue reading

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What A Real Bear Market Looks Like

We’ve created an S&P/Nikkei analog to compare how the current bear market is performing relative to the first month of trading after the Nikkei stock index peak on December 29, 1989.  Japanese stocks have been in an uber 30-year bear market. … Continue reading

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S&P500 Approaching Key Level

Just a quick heads up.  The S&P500 has already taken out 2750.10, the first key Fib retracement of the 400 plus percent long bull market from Mar’09 to Feb ’20, and is now approaching another key Fibo at 2351.91, which … Continue reading

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Some Perspective

In our March 7th post,  Stages Of A Pandemic: Denial, Panic, Fear, and Rationality, we suspected the country was about to move from denial to panic over the coronavirus pandemic.   It sure did and infected the global markets in a … Continue reading

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No Time For A Victory Lap

President Trump gave the market what it was looking for today with a laser focus on containing the coronavirus and enlisting the private sector in the battle.   No focus on the stock market during the entire presser, which is, ironically,  … Continue reading

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Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading

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The Fed Cut Fails To Inspire As Markets Deliver A Policy Margin Call

The price action in stocks continues its remarkable volatility. The cash S&P500 traded in a 160 point range just today, or 5.4 percent.   They sold the Fed 50 bps emergency cut hard to close the S&P at 3003.37, down 2.8 … Continue reading

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Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!

Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days.   Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx?    We … Continue reading

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Stonks Finally Mugged By A Dose Of Reality

After watching this incredible bubble go up every-freaking-day and the speculative fever feed on itself, the market finally got its reality check today. Tied For Second Largest Point Drop (rounding up) Today’s flop marks only the third time in history … Continue reading

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