Category Archives: Equities

Stress Testing Apple

Goldman finally getting around to stress testing Apple as the trade war escalates.  They are out today warning Apple is in a world of hurt if China targets the iPhone maker in the trade war. The U.S.-China trade war could … Continue reading

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Is “Obama Envy” Driving Trump’s Call For QE4?

We are still dazed and a bit livid over President Trump’s call for QE4, and increasingly perplexed how the market just takes such absurdities, including his latest nominees to the Fed, in stride.  Is .999 percent the next target for … Continue reading

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Newton’s Q1 Law Of Motion For The S&P500

Newton’s three laws of motion may be stated as follows: Every object in a state of uniform motion will remain in that state of motion unless an external force acts on it. Force equals mass times acceleration. For every action, there is an equal and … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Equity, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Permabulls For The Long Run

  I once heard the late, great financial economist Stephen Ross speak at a Lehman Brothers bond conference in Sun Valley, Idaho.  He opened his presentation with a short story about how investors would approach him and ask, “if you’re … Continue reading

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Beware of Trannies That Lag

Summary We construct a relative performance index (TRP) of the Dow Transports and Dow Industrials Index  In all three large and major 2018 sell-offs, the TRP signaled an impending correction 7-18 trading days before markets rolled over The TRP peaked … Continue reading

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S&P500 Key Levels

The S&P closed right at or just a smidgen above its 200-day moving average.   The market rally based on a government shutdown deal?  Come on, man! Another government shutdown wasn’t priced, so why should stocks move on a deal? We … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Trade War, Trades, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 8 Comments

BFTP: Call Me Comrade!

BFTP = Blast From The Past Does it ever change? We were going through some old posts this morning and came across this pearl from over eight years ago.   Charges of socialism were also polluting the political environment back then … Continue reading

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The Clash of Generations, Fed, China, And The S&P500

We begin the new week with the S&P500 up over 15 percent from the December 26th intraday low at 2346.58 and sitting right at the 100-day moving average (2710.88) and the key .618 Fibo retracement at 2713.88.    Last weekend … Continue reading

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S&P500 Key Levels

The S&P gave up 22 percent of its 6.54 percent YTD gain today. We nailed it in our 3 AM post, The Increasing Risk of A Major China Trade Debacle, Look to the government shutdown as your template as to how Trump … Continue reading

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Our Autopsy On The Still Living Bear Market

Summary We believe the market is way off base in its analysis of what caused stocks to sell hard in 2018 The U.S. and world have a debt problem and yields need to mover higher in order for markets to … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | 16 Comments