Category Archives: Equities

A Long Way Down To Value

Posted on March 31, 2020 by

Summary The stock market has completed the first phase of a bear market with a rapid and sharp Q1 sell-off caused by massive deleveraging Stocks still need to deal with its valuation problem as well as discounting the long-term financial … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 16 Comments

The Stock Market’s Gas Gauge

Posted on March 23, 2020 by

The stock market, as defined by the Wilshire 5000 has fallen 35.1 percent from its closing high on February 19th and has been unable to sustain a decent bounce for more than a day.   Our favorite valuation metric, stock market … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

What A Real Bear Market Looks Like

Posted on March 19, 2020 by

We’ve created an S&P/Nikkei analog to compare how the current bear market is performing relative to the first month of trading after the Nikkei stock index peak on December 29, 1989.  Japanese stocks have been in an uber 30-year bear market. … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

S&P500 Approaching Key Level

Posted on March 17, 2020 by

Just a quick heads up.  The S&P500 has already taken out 2750.10, the first key Fib retracement of the 400 plus percent long bull market from Mar’09 to Feb ’20, and is now approaching another key Fibo at 2351.91, which … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Some Perspective

Posted on March 16, 2020 by

In our March 7th post,  Stages Of A Pandemic: Denial, Panic, Fear, and Rationality, we suspected the country was about to move from denial to panic over the coronavirus pandemic.   It sure did and infected the global markets in a … Continue reading →

Posted in Algos, Coronavirus, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

No Time For A Victory Lap

Posted on March 13, 2020 by

President Trump gave the market what it was looking for today with a laser focus on containing the coronavirus and enlisting the private sector in the battle.   No focus on the stock market during the entire presser, which is, ironically,  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

Posted on March 12, 2020 by

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Fed Cut Fails To Inspire As Markets Deliver A Policy Margin Call

Posted on March 3, 2020 by

The price action in stocks continues its remarkable volatility. The cash S&P500 traded in a 160 point range just today, or 5.4 percent.   They sold the Fed 50 bps emergency cut hard to close the S&P at 3003.37, down 2.8 … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!

Posted on February 24, 2020 by

Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days.   Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx?    We … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Stonks Finally Mugged By A Dose Of Reality

Posted on February 24, 2020 by

After watching this incredible bubble go up every-freaking-day and the speculative fever feed on itself, the market finally got its reality check today. Tied For Second Largest Point Drop (rounding up) Today’s flop marks only the third time in history … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment