Category Archives: Bonds

A Long Way To The Bottom For Stocks

Based on the both historic price action of the two financial bubbles that have burst in the past twenty years and our favorite valuation metric — Market Capitalization-to-GDP or the Wilshire 5000 Index to Nominal GDP — stocks still have … Continue reading

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Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Another Blast From The Past (BFTP). Originally Posted On March 17, 2012 Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day! St. Patrick, Ireland, St. Patrick’s Day. Simple, right? The man wasn’t even Irish! He was actually born in Britain around the turn of … Continue reading

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No Time For A Victory Lap

President Trump gave the market what it was looking for today with a laser focus on containing the coronavirus and enlisting the private sector in the battle.   No focus on the stock market during the entire presser, which is, ironically,  … Continue reading

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Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Why We’re Big Fans Of Johnny “Cash”

Of course, if Larry M.’s Lehman-like drawdown scenario is realized, haven flows and shorts will pile into long-notes and bonds as a proxy short but we have no interest in trading fixed-income securities with a 100 bps negative real yield. … Continue reading

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Inflation, Minimum Wages, Suicide, & Karl Marx

Is the rise of the global populism the result of a mismeasurement of inflation? “Look around the world, I see small revolutions everywhere, in France with the gilets jaunes, Brexit in the UK, the election of Trump. I see a … Continue reading

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About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

It’s Always About The Treasury Flows

We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings.   Our analysis may also … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Turmoil In The Money Markets & Financing Burgeoning Budget Deficits

Sit up and listen, folks.  We may be in the midst of a Black Swan event. Nobody knows for certain what is creating the turmoil in the repo and money markets but we suspect much of it has to do … Continue reading

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Rent Control Issues Hit 7-year Bond Auction

At least, that is our view. We have worried out loud how global interest rate repression may cause ugly bond auctions. A problem that similarly arises in the rent-controlled housing market. …we are watching the Treasury auctions closely and suspect … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, China, Credit, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 8 Comments