Category Archives: Bonds

Inflation, Minimum Wages, Suicide, & Karl Marx

Is the rise of the global populism the result of a mismeasurement of inflation? “Look around the world, I see small revolutions everywhere, in France with the gilets jaunes, Brexit in the UK, the election of Trump. I see a … Continue reading

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About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

It’s Always About The Treasury Flows

We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings.   Our analysis may also … Continue reading

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Turmoil In The Money Markets & Financing Burgeoning Budget Deficits

Sit up and listen, folks.  We may be in the midst of a Black Swan event. Nobody knows for certain what is creating the turmoil in the repo and money markets but we suspect much of it has to do … Continue reading

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Rent Control Issues Hit 7-year Bond Auction

At least, that is our view. We have worried out loud how global interest rate repression may cause ugly bond auctions. A problem that similarly arises in the rent-controlled housing market. …we are watching the Treasury auctions closely and suspect … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, China, Credit, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 8 Comments

The Short-Term Heavy Treasury Curve

Before reading further we suggest you look at our latest post, The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion, for some context.   Gravitational Pull Toward Curve Flattening And Inversions Note the structure of the Treasury curve in terms of the amount of … Continue reading

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The Perversion Of The Yield Curve Inversion

We should be on vacation but it never fails that volatility spikes as soon as we leave our desk.   It must be the Ides Of August. Wait, it is.  Et tu Brutal! Nevertheless, we can’t help ourselves and have to … Continue reading

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More Monetary Insanity & The Negative Yielding Bond Bubble

Had to get this last one in before we hit the surf. We like to look at the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI calculation as it removes monthly outliers that can pull the averages up or down.  It hit a 10-year … Continue reading

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Negative Yields Versus Negative Coupon Rates

There is a big difference between a bond with a negative yield to maturity than a bond with a negative coupon rate.   Many in the market conflate the two. We are searching for bonds that pay a negative coupon rate.  … Continue reading

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“Rent Control” Problems Emerging In Bond Auctions

  Hat Tip: Gregory Mannarino  @GregMannarino The bid-to-cover ratio, indicative of the number of investors who put in offers to buy the debt and a gauge of demand, stood at 2.19. That is down from the 2.4 recorded in the last sale … Continue reading

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