Category Archives: Bonds

QOTD: Bund Dearth

QOTD: Quote of the Day Nice pithy quote, which thoroughly encapsulates our narrative of global markets that the major central banks have created a yuuuge shortage of risk-free assets tipping the world economy into a bizarro Twilight Zone, where, now … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized, Weekly Eurozone Watch | 1 Comment

The Bear On The Balcony At Bretton Woods

Ursa Major waits patiently as she watches over,  in amazement, the yield chasing salmon in a panic buying frenzy over fears of NIRP, ZIRP. negative and near zero bond yields forever and ever. The Bear on the Balcony is giving, …them … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

QOTD: Go Josh!

QOTD:  Quote of the Day The bond market is dumb as a rock. It’s a trillion dollars a year being shoveled into three ETFs by financial advisors and bank tellers. Your “signals" haven’t worked in a decade, try a fortune … Continue reading

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Beware Of Retrofitting Fundamentals To Price Action

See our post, Newton’s Q1 Law Of Motion For The S&P,  by clicking here   The past few weeks were a classic exercise in how markets tend to “retrofit” price action to their expectations of economic fundamentals and illustrates the … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Charts, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Another Blast From The Past (BFTP).  Hard to believe this was seven years ago. Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day! St. Patrick, Ireland, St. Patrick’s Day. Simple, right? The man wasn’t even Irish! He was actually born in Britain around the … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, General Interest, Picture of the Day, PIIGS | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

“Crowding Out” Caused The Q4 Stock Swoon

In what we consider one of our best and most timely all-time posts, The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0, a must-read tome on the structural changes taking place in the U.S. Treasury market, we warned at the end of last … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 8 Comments

Gundlach’s Coming Corporate Bondageddon

Nice piece in ZH on Jeff Gundlach dishing with Yahoo Finance on the vulnerability of the corporate bond market in the next recession.   In our data analysis piece, which we reposted below, we highlight the fact largest holders of U.S. corporate … Continue reading

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Millennials Rising, Market Risk Increasing

Righteous! Check out today’s cover of the Economist.   It confirms our ongoing analysis and illustrates why you should read the Global Macro Monitor, folks. It’s been almost exactly one year to the date since we posted,  Karl, The Comeback Kid?  We warned … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ownership And Profile Of The Corporate Bond Market

Summary Nonfinancial corporates have amost doubled their stock of outstanding bonds since the GFC moving from 19.5 percent of GDP in 2007 to 26.5 percent in Q3 2018 Conversely,  the domestic financial sector has been delevering, reducing bond debt by … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Our Autopsy On The Still Living Bear Market

Summary We believe the market is way off base in its analysis of what caused stocks to sell hard in 2018 The U.S. and world have a debt problem and yields need to mover higher in order for markets to … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | 16 Comments