Category Archives: Bonds

Black Swan Hunting

While the macro boys at GMM are off hunting Black Swans,  I am making money to keep the lights on. – Carol K., GMM, August 11th Yes, Carol K is correct, and we thank her for keeping the lights on at … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Coach C, Tail Risk | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Are You Buying At These Valuations? Not Buffett

More than his words, he spoke with his wallet. He usually relishes a down stock market to take advantage of lower prices. Not this time. He hadn’t made any purchases recently; he didn’t buy up stocks when they had fallen … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Coronavirus, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 18 Comments

Ownership & Profile Of The U.S. Corporate Bond Market – Q4 2019

Summary Nonfinancial corporates grew their stock of outstanding bonds by over 80 percent from Q4 2009 to Q4 2019,  moving from 21.80 percent of GDP in 2009 to 26.62 percent in Q4 2019 Conversely,  the domestic financial sector continued to … Continue reading

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A Long Way To The Bottom For Stocks

Based on the both historic price action of the two financial bubbles that have burst in the past twenty years and our favorite valuation metric — Market Capitalization-to-GDP or the Wilshire 5000 Index to Nominal GDP — stocks still have … Continue reading

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Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Another Blast From The Past (BFTP). Originally Posted On March 17, 2012 Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day! St. Patrick, Ireland, St. Patrick’s Day. Simple, right? The man wasn’t even Irish! He was actually born in Britain around the turn of … Continue reading

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No Time For A Victory Lap

President Trump gave the market what it was looking for today with a laser focus on containing the coronavirus and enlisting the private sector in the battle.   No focus on the stock market during the entire presser, which is, ironically,  … Continue reading

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Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Why We’re Big Fans Of Johnny “Cash”

Of course, if Larry M.’s Lehman-like drawdown scenario is realized, haven flows and shorts will pile into long-notes and bonds as a proxy short but we have no interest in trading fixed-income securities with a 100 bps negative real yield. … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 7 Comments

Inflation, Minimum Wages, Suicide, & Karl Marx

Is the rise of the global populism the result of a mismeasurement of inflation? “Look around the world, I see small revolutions everywhere, in France with the gilets jaunes, Brexit in the UK, the election of Trump. I see a … Continue reading

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About That Inverted Yield Curve, Coming Recession, and Repopocalypse

Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments