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Category Archives: Interest Rates
Global Macro Watch
Posted in Charts, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Global Macro Watch, Global Risk Monitor, Interest Rates
Tagged Global Macro Watch
1 Comment
Inflation: The Road Ahead For The Rest Of 2022
#CKStrong A reasonably informative video below, especially regarding inflation. Not much mention of the growth of money driving excess demand, however. M2 (thanks to the great Ed Yardeni for the charts) is still growing over 10 percent, in the U.S. … Continue reading
What Are Bond Yields & Breakevens Telling Us?
#CKStrong Carol K.’s ANC broke above 1200 today. Absolute Neutrophil Count (ANC ) measures a type of white blood cell that kill and digest bacteria and fungi to help the body fight infections and heal wounds. At a time … Continue reading
Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It
No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous. We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Bond Market, Fed, yields
1 Comment
It’s Always About The Treasury Flows
We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings. Our analysis may also … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized
Tagged Debt, Deficit, Market Debt, TIC, Treasury Flows
1 Comment
Yield Spike
We highlighted the potential risk in our post yesterday, Druckenmiller On Bonds If you listened to the Druckenmiller interview we posted on New Year’s Day, he thrives in bear markets, not by shorting stocks but being long bonds. Shorting stocks … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Interest rates, Stan Druckenmiller, yields
11 Comments
The S&P Levels You Need To Know
Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500. In honor of George H.W. and George W.? Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading
Short Covering In Bond Pits And The S&P
Well, the virtual bond pits. Looks like specs are getting spooked and covering their bond shorts. Stunning, however, that the 10-year note yield is right about where it was on September 21st when the S&P500 made its intraday all-time high … Continue reading
Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind
At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market, The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0, which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading