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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Category Archives: Interest Rates
Yield Spike
We highlighted the potential risk in our post yesterday, Druckenmiller On Bonds If you listened to the Druckenmiller interview we posted on New Year’s Day, he thrives in bear markets, not by shorting stocks but being long bonds. Shorting stocks … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Interest rates, Stan Druckenmiller, yields
8 Comments
The S&P Levels You Need To Know
Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500. In honor of George H.W. and George W.? Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading
Short Covering In Bond Pits And The S&P
Well, the virtual bond pits. Looks like specs are getting spooked and covering their bond shorts. Stunning, however, that the 10-year note yield is right about where it was on September 21st when the S&P500 made its intraday all-time high … Continue reading
Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind
At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market, The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0, which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading
Why The 2018 Stock Market Corrections Are Different
Just a quick note and some data to bolster our last post and concern that Treasury yields are not coming in during this stock market correction. The table illustrates that the this year’s two S&P 10 percent corrections have coincided … Continue reading
China and Japan Continue To Reduce Treasury Holdings
The U.S. Treasury just released the August TIC (Treasury International Capital) data at the market close. The key takeaways: China and Japan, the U.S. government’s two largest foreign creditors, continue to reduce their Treasury holdings, both down $6 billion in … Continue reading
Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing
Summary Largely ignored by the markets, Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading
FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco
The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change, remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Fed, Monetary Policy, Real Fed Funds Rate
8 Comments
Tail Event Day: -3.29% S&P500 and +1.7 bps 10-year Yield
Something is rotten in the U.S. bond market, which is irritating the stock market, to say, the very least. Today’s 3.29 percent flop in the S&P500, coupled with a 1.7 bps rise in the 10-year yield, is very rare, and … Continue reading
Posted in Equity, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Bonds Market, Crash, Interest rate parity, Stock Market
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