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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Category Archives: Interest Rates
Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It
No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous. We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Bond Market, Fed, yields
1 Comment
It’s Always About The Treasury Flows
We have looked at the central bank holdings — both the Fed and foreign central banks — of marketable Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over the past twenty years and were quite surprised by our findings. Our analysis may also … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, China, Interest Rates, Japan, Uncategorized
Tagged Debt, Deficit, Market Debt, TIC, Treasury Flows
1 Comment
Yield Spike
We highlighted the potential risk in our post yesterday, Druckenmiller On Bonds If you listened to the Druckenmiller interview we posted on New Year’s Day, he thrives in bear markets, not by shorting stocks but being long bonds. Shorting stocks … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Interest rates, Stan Druckenmiller, yields
11 Comments
The S&P Levels You Need To Know
Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500. In honor of George H.W. and George W.? Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading
Short Covering In Bond Pits And The S&P
Well, the virtual bond pits. Looks like specs are getting spooked and covering their bond shorts. Stunning, however, that the 10-year note yield is right about where it was on September 21st when the S&P500 made its intraday all-time high … Continue reading
Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind
At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market, The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0, which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading
Why The 2018 Stock Market Corrections Are Different
Just a quick note and some data to bolster our last post and concern that Treasury yields are not coming in during this stock market correction. The table illustrates that the this year’s two S&P 10 percent corrections have coincided … Continue reading
China and Japan Continue To Reduce Treasury Holdings
The U.S. Treasury just released the August TIC (Treasury International Capital) data at the market close. The key takeaways: China and Japan, the U.S. government’s two largest foreign creditors, continue to reduce their Treasury holdings, both down $6 billion in … Continue reading
Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing
Summary Largely ignored by the markets, Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading