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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Tag Archives: Fed
The United Socialist States of America (USSA)
You’d think the Fed governors would have the sense the political problem they are creating for themselves. Pumping up the stock market — supporting corporate bonds will do that — while Main Street suffers is a recipe for sweeping changes … Continue reading
Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It
No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous. We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Bond Market, Fed, yields
1 Comment
A Short Stay At The Bear Trap Inn
As we suspected in last night’s post, A break of today’s low at 2945.23 cinches a beeline move to the 50-day, where algos will likely set their bear trap and try and bounce the market. We expect a feeble bounce at best, … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Equities, S&P500, Uncategorized
Tagged Bear Trap, Fed, Nikkei, QE, S&P500
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Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?
Gravity. Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up. If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading
Dollar Impact On U.S. Manufacturing Employment
We have been busy on a piece evaluating the U.S. economy under the first 29 months of the Trump administration. As I used to bark out selling programs as a young kid at Dodger Stadium, “You can’t tell the players … Continue reading
Posted in Dollar, Economics, Uncategorized
Tagged dollar, Economics, Fed, Manufacturing Employment
13 Comments
FOMC: Bid Adieu to QT
Just our quick take on today’s Fed. The major takeaway from today’s FOMC announcement is the end of QT in September with the cap moving down to $15 billion in the SOMA Treasury portfolio in May. The Committee intends to … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Crowding Out, Fed, FOMC, Quantitative Tightening
3 Comments
Week In Review – January 4
Summary What a week to start the year. U.S. stocks trading like an emerging market Big money flows into emerging markets, particularly big Latins. Look at move yields and currency U.S. bond yields spiked on Friday as stock shorts, as … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized, Week in Review
Tagged Biotech, bonds, Brazil Stocks, Commodities, Corn, Currencies, Fed, Performance, Stocks, Week in Review
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Druckenmiller on Economy & Fed – Bloomberg
Dec.18 — Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy, his investment strategy for stocks and bonds, President Donald Trump’s attempts to sway Federal Reserve policy and the prospects for a solution to the U.S.-China trade dispute. … Continue reading
Posted in Video, Whales
Tagged Bloomberg, bonds, Economy, Fed, Stan Druckenmiller, Stocks
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Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins
We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis. Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading
FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco
The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change, remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Fed, Monetary Policy, Real Fed Funds Rate
8 Comments
