Tag Archives: Fed

FOMC: Bid Adieu to QT

Just our quick take on today’s Fed. The major takeaway from today’s FOMC announcement is the end of QT in September with the cap moving down to $15 billion in the SOMA Treasury portfolio in May. The Committee intends to … Continue reading

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Week In Review – January 4

Summary What a week to start the year. U.S. stocks trading like an emerging market Big money flows into emerging markets, particularly big Latins.  Look at move yields and currency U.S. bond yields spiked on Friday as stock shorts, as … Continue reading

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Druckenmiller on Economy & Fed – Bloomberg

Dec.18 — Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy, his investment strategy for stocks and bonds, President Donald Trump’s attempts to sway Federal Reserve policy and the prospects for a solution to the U.S.-China trade dispute. … Continue reading

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Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis.   Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 33 Comments

FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco

The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change,  remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

Browbeating the Fed 2.0

As the market melt and President Trump ramps up his rhetoric on Fed rate hikes, we thought you’d be interested in our July post. By the way,  the geopolitics in the Taiwan strait are growing much hotter since we wrote.  … Continue reading

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Other Fowl Plays In The Emerging Markets

Fowl Play? The Twisted Linguistics of Turkey American turkeys and African guinea fowl, victims of Portuguese vagary, became inextricably mixed. Today the geographically garbled turkey is known as dinde (from poule d’Inde or chicken of India) in France, kalkoen (from Calicut hen) in the Netherlands, and indjushka (Indian … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 13 Comments

Is Trump Starting To Lean On The Fed Or Setting It Up?

President Trump said in an interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernan this morning he “does not agree”, is not “thrilled” or “happy” with the FOMC’s interest rate hikes.  The full interview and transcripts will be available tomorrow. Click here for excerpt … Continue reading

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QE And The Laurel vs. Yanny Distortion

Interesting clip from Wired,  interviewing  a neuroscientist explaining how people get the sound Laurel and Yanny name so different. The interview is profound if you take the principles and apply them to the markets.  It’s all about reading the correct … Continue reading

Posted in Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

Cleveland Fed Dishes On Yield Curve Signal

Check out the latest from the Cleveland Fed president,  Loretta Mester: Mester advised that there is “no evidence” for thinking that a flatter curve signals a weaker economy at this time, Reuters reported. She added that “structural factors,” such as bond-buying by central … Continue reading

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