Tag Archives: Fed

A Short Stay At The Bear Trap Inn

Posted on August 2, 2019 by

As we suspected in last night’s post, A break of today’s low at 2945.23 cinches a beeline move to the 50-day, where algos will likely set their bear trap and try and bounce the market.  We expect a feeble bounce at best, … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Equities, S&P500, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?

Posted on July 31, 2019 by

Gravity.  Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up.  If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Dollar Impact On U.S. Manufacturing Employment

Posted on July 8, 2019 by

We have been busy on a piece evaluating the U.S. economy under the first 29 months of the Trump administration.  As I used to bark out selling programs as a young kid at Dodger Stadium, “You can’t tell the players … Continue reading →

Posted in Dollar, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 13 Comments

FOMC: Bid Adieu to QT

Posted on March 20, 2019 by

Just our quick take on today’s Fed. The major takeaway from today’s FOMC announcement is the end of QT in September with the cap moving down to $15 billion in the SOMA Treasury portfolio in May. The Committee intends to … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Week In Review – January 4

Posted on January 6, 2019 by

Summary What a week to start the year. U.S. stocks trading like an emerging market Big money flows into emerging markets, particularly big Latins.  Look at move yields and currency U.S. bond yields spiked on Friday as stock shorts, as … Continue reading →

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Druckenmiller on Economy & Fed – Bloomberg

Posted on January 1, 2019 by

Dec.18 — Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy, his investment strategy for stocks and bonds, President Donald Trump’s attempts to sway Federal Reserve policy and the prospects for a solution to the U.S.-China trade dispute. … Continue reading →

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Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

Posted on October 25, 2018 by

We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis.   Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 33 Comments

FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco

Posted on October 15, 2018 by

The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change,  remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

Browbeating the Fed 2.0

Posted on October 11, 2018 by

As the market melt and President Trump ramps up his rhetoric on Fed rate hikes, we thought you’d be interested in our July post. By the way,  the geopolitics in the Taiwan strait are growing much hotter since we wrote.  … Continue reading →

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Other Fowl Plays In The Emerging Markets

Posted on August 19, 2018 by

Fowl Play? The Twisted Linguistics of Turkey American turkeys and African guinea fowl, victims of Portuguese vagary, became inextricably mixed. Today the geographically garbled turkey is known as dinde (from poule d’Inde or chicken of India) in France, kalkoen (from Calicut hen) in the Netherlands, and indjushka (Indian … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 13 Comments