Tag Archives: Stock Market

Beware Of The S&P’s Doji City

In our Saturday post,  Heads Up! Friday’s Rare S&P Shooting Star Candlestick,  we pointed out the S&P500 had formed a rate shooting star Doji candlestick on Friday with price action that had been observed only once since 2010, last Halloween day. Run don’t … Continue reading

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Beware Shorting Impeachments

Reposting a piece from a few years back to provide some market perspective on today’s news.  There are a confluence of events, not just political instability, of why we believe stocks are headed lower, including valuations and the shifting of … Continue reading

Posted in Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?

Gravity.  Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up.  If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading

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Tail Event Day: -3.29% S&P500 and +1.7 bps 10-year Yield

Something is rotten in the U.S. bond market, which is irritating the stock market, to say, the very least. Today’s 3.29 percent flop in the S&P500, coupled with a 1.7 bps rise in the 10-year yield, is very rare, and … Continue reading

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Major Stock Index Recovery Percentages

Today’s big rally on the back of the Goldilocks employment report, i.e, strong jobs growth and moderate wage pressures, took the Nasdaq, with its 45 percent tech weighting,  to an all-time high.  Not the overall market, however, as the NYSE … Continue reading

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Gundlach Channels Our “Mark Of The Beast” Market

Love Jeffrey Gundlach.  As with everyone, not always right as nobody knows the future, but his analytical roadmap to decision making is rigorous, and he has the big ‘nads to pound the contrarian table. That earns him much respect, in … Continue reading

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Market Liquidity Conditions Still Loose As A Goose

Since the Fed began raising interest rates in December 2015,  financial market liquidity conditions have loosened considerably.   Recall our post,  Orwellian Monetary Policy,  which we wrote in May. “Tightening is Easing” Since U.S. monetary policy began tightening in December … Continue reading

Posted in Algos, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 17 Comments

Beware Shorting Impeachments

We’ve analyzed the behavior of the S&P500 during the Watergate impeachment hearings and the Clinton impeachment.  If you’re shorting risk markets solely based on speculation that President Trump may be impeached, maybe you should think again. Let’s first look at … Continue reading

Posted in Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 10 Comments

Reagan v Trump Macro Initial Conditions

We hear lots of talk these days about,  Why Donald Trump’s Market Rally Echoes Ronald Reagan’s.    We are big fans of Chaos Theory, Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics focused on the behavior of dynamical systems that are … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 11 Comments

Are market bears just cuddly pandas – FT

James Mackintosh on rally after China dip The retreat in equities may have been triggered by China but markets moved so rapidly because investors were overly complacent. James Mackintosh, investment editor, questions the forces pushing for a deeper drop and … Continue reading

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