Category Archives: Politics

The Black Swan Chart Of 2020

The surprising outcome of the 2020 presidential election may be, OK, Boomer.  It’s time to pass the torch of leadership to a new generation.    The younger generations dwarf the boomers in terms of sheer numbers but they have a … Continue reading

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The Best MLK Weekend Of All-Time

We are reposting this in honor of Dr. King, a truly great American. Originally Posted on January 21, 2019 During my Lehman days as a bond strategist, the firm’s research group would do a January roadshow in many of America’s major … Continue reading

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Stock Market Returns And Presidents – Beware Of Averaging

We have warned about looking at averages (see here), especially with such skewed distributions and how a couple outliers can greatly distort this most common statistical metric. Real Life Macro Economy Example:  2019 Q1:  Average U.S. Household Wealth =  $803.3K … Continue reading

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Creative Destruction 3.0 Meets Roaring ’20s 2.0

Creative destruction refers to the incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones. It was coined by Joseph Schumpeter (1942), who considered it ‘the essential fact about capitalism’. The process of Schumpeterian creative destruction … Continue reading

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Daily Tracking Poll Now At +16 For Trump’s Removal

This MSN daily tracking poll is often cited by the Drudge Report.  On Christmas Day, Drudge ran this: CHRISTMAS SHOCK POLL: 55% SUPPORT REMOVAL OF TRUMP Is anyone watching? Is it a fake poll? Are the Republican Senators watching and … Continue reading

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American Democracy In A Bear Market

…As partisans have drifted apart geographically and ideologically, they’ve become more hostile toward each other. In 1960, less than 5 percent of Democrats and Republicans said they’d be unhappy if their children married someone from the other party; today, 35 … Continue reading

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The Night the Red Light Went Out in Georgia?

Is Roxane about to put off the Republican red light in Georgia? Stunning New Poll In Georgia It ain’t over ‘til it’s over but the latest polling data from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is nothing less than stunning.   A Republican presidential candidate has only … Continue reading

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Time To Start Discounting A Hard Left Turn

 “I don’t like the Democrats, but Trump is destroying the Republic!  – Retired Four-Star General (See Admiral McRaven’s editoral below)  Last week was a very bad week for President Trump and may, in hindsight, be the tipping point of his … Continue reading

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The Coming Political Oktoberfest

So we missed by a week or two. Coming “Summer Political Discontent?” There will be some political instability into a second referendum vote as the Brexiteers take to the street.  Depending on how things shape up with President Trump’s legal … Continue reading

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My 6 Sigma Political Scenario Now Trending On Twitter

I took so much incoming for this part of a post (reposted yesterday) I wrote back in May 2017.  People would look at me as I was crazy when I laid out the unlikely scenario, which, I admit, was written … Continue reading

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