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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation
Fed Heads Talking 4 Percent Inflation
Fed's Kashkari says he would not panic if he saw a 4% inflation rate-BBG — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) April 8, 2021 The bond market might, however, assuming Kashkari’s quote is true. We are reposting a piece, which we recieved tremendous pushback … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Equities, Inflation/Deflation
Tagged CPI, Inflation, Job losses, Supply shocks
24 Comments
The Macro Factors Driving The Covid Economy In Two Charts
Here’s a couple of interesting and surprising charts, which explain what has been driving the COVID economy and why the U.S. economy is set up for monster growth over the next few quarters. When the economy fully reopens, we suspect … Continue reading
Posted in Disinflaton, Inflation/Deflation
Tagged Inflation, Personal Expenditures, Personal Income
18 Comments
Ready For 4 Percent CPI By Mid-Year?
Starting to hear lots of talk about inflation these days, something we have been seeing in the pipeline for the past six months. Input price inflation accelerated to a near-decade high in January. Costs increased to the greatest extent since … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Equities, Inflation/Deflation
Tagged CPI, Inflation, Job losses, Supply shocks
24 Comments
QOTD: Inflationary Pressure In The Pipeline
QOTD = Quote of the Day Inflationary pressures have started to return to the manufacturing sector, with October seeing the first – albeit slight – increases in both input costs and output prices since the first half of 2019. Demand … Continue reading
Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It
No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous. We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged Bond Market, Fed, yields
1 Comment
Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!
Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days. Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx? We … Continue reading
Two Charts Keeping Us On The Beach
I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain. I’ve seen manias the public thought would never end. Until they do. This ain’t our first rodeo. We have seen these types of asset bubbles many times during our career, especially when you … Continue reading
Posted in Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized
Tagged Bubbles, Manias, Recession, Small Cap relative performance
10 Comments
Inflation, Minimum Wages, Suicide, & Karl Marx
Is the rise of the global populism the result of a mismeasurement of inflation? “Look around the world, I see small revolutions everywhere, in France with the gilets jaunes, Brexit in the UK, the election of Trump. I see a … Continue reading
Our Favorite Chart: Core CPI
“Inflation is taxation without legislation” – Milton Friedman How’s that deflation meme working for you? Core CPI’s Cup and Handle Pattern Back in the day, I would be buying that chart hand over fist if it were a stock, bond, … Continue reading
More Monetary Insanity & The Negative Yielding Bond Bubble
Had to get this last one in before we hit the surf. We like to look at the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI calculation as it removes monthly outliers that can pull the averages up or down. It hit a 10-year … Continue reading
