Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation

QOTD: Inflationary Pressure In The Pipeline

Posted on November 12, 2020 by macromon

QOTD = Quote of the Day Inflationary pressures have started to return to the manufacturing sector, with October seeing the first – albeit slight – increases in both input costs and output prices since the first half of 2019. Demand … Continue reading →

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Trump & Co Must Abandon The Stock Market To Save It

Posted on March 12, 2020 by macromon

No bottom in stocks or the economy until the test kits are ubiquitous.   We believe markets want an aggressive plan and action to treat the disease rather than focusing on the symptoms. Then markets will take care of themselves and … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!

Posted on February 24, 2020 by macromon

Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days.   Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx?    We … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Two Charts Keeping Us On The Beach

Posted on February 17, 2020 by macromon

I’ve seen fire and I’ve seen rain.  I’ve seen manias the public thought would never end. Until they do. This ain’t our first rodeo.  We have seen these types of asset bubbles many times during our career, especially when you … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Inflation, Minimum Wages, Suicide, & Karl Marx

Posted on January 9, 2020 by macromon

Is the rise of the global populism the result of a mismeasurement of inflation? “Look around the world, I see small revolutions everywhere, in France with the gilets jaunes, Brexit in the UK, the election of Trump. I see a … Continue reading →

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Our Favorite Chart: Core CPI

Posted on September 12, 2019 by macromon

“Inflation is taxation without legislation” – Milton Friedman How’s that deflation meme working for you? Core CPI’s Cup and Handle Pattern  Back in the day, I would be buying that chart hand over fist if it were a stock, bond, … Continue reading →

Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged | 3 Comments

More Monetary Insanity & The Negative Yielding Bond Bubble

Posted on August 13, 2019 by macromon

Had to get this last one in before we hit the surf. We like to look at the Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI calculation as it removes monthly outliers that can pull the averages up or down.  It hit a 10-year … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Deflation? Not Even Close

Posted on July 28, 2019 by macromon

Core CPI consistently prints around 2 percent, the average over the past eight years, with the latest reading of the June core rate coming in at 2.1 percent.  Sure, we can find another index to show lower or higher rates … Continue reading →

Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 4 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Posted on September 24, 2018 by macromon

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 43 Comments

Distorted Inflation Data & Dynamic Pricing

Posted on September 16, 2018 by macromon

Just bought Bob Woodward’s new book for a birthday gift from Amazon yesterday for $18.00.  I tried to buy another one this morning and was quoted a price of  $19.32 per book.   That’s Venezuela-esque inflation, folks.  Works out to … Continue reading →

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