The Market Radar


We anticipate monitor and comment on market-moving global economic and geopolitical issues.  No dark side brooding, no wanting the world to end, no political rants.  Traders, investors, policymakers, or market observers can’t afford to ignore us.  In one word, perspicacity.

An educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people– Thomas Jefferson

By seeking and blundering, we learn. – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

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Janet Yellen Now Favored To Become Treasury Secretary

President-elect Biden is expected to name some of Cabinet picks on Tuesday,

President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s transition team will officially announce its first cabinet appointments on Tuesday, said Ron Klain, Mr. Biden’s incoming White House chief of staff, although he declined to say which ones.

The names of at least three expected cabinet appointments were released on Sunday night by people close to the decision process, including Anthony J. Blinken for secretary of state, Jake Sullivan as national security adviser and Linda Thomas-Greenfield as ambassador to the United Nations. – NY Times

Update

Since our post on the market bets at PredictIt.org for President-elect Biden’s Cabinet picks,  Janet Yellen has soared to become the favorite for Treasury Secretary.  Lael Brainard is not even in the hunt anymore.

In addition, Anthony Blinken is reportedly a done deal at State.

Bernie Sanders is running a distant fourth, at $.08, to Marty Walsh to become Secretary of Labor.

 

As we stated in that post,

The prediction markets are the worst forecaster except for all others. 

Stay tuned.

 

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How COVID Has Turbo Charged Big Tech – FT

What happens when a pandemic collides with technological change? Covid-19 has shaken business to its core. The FT’s Lex maps how the landscape is changing – FT

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The Biden Cabinet: Prediction Markets Making Big Bets On XX Chromosome Set

This post is dedicated to our very loved colleague and friend, Carol K., who has been bravely fighting a relapse of ovarian cancer.  She received the results today she is cancer-free.  She is a true warrior and we never had any doubt she would beat the beast.  

Disclaimer:   The prediction markets are the worst forecaster except for all others.  Though they nailed the presidency, they were way off on many Senate seats.  For example, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine was only priced at around a 30% probability of being re-elected the day before election day.  Big Fail!

Line Of Succession

Markets are betting five out of the top six in the line of succession to the presidency are going to be from the XX chromosome set, and number three is an 87-year white male Republican with COVID, who, BTW,  we send out thoughts and prayers, and hope his fellow Republicans will begin to respect biology and start to rigorously adhere to wearing masks in public.

Times they are a-changin’.  Good for my three daughters.

                                  U.S. Presidential Line Of Succession 

Source:  Wikipedia

Secretary of Treasury

LB

Lael Brainard (born 1962, HamburgWest Germany is an American economist and member of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, where she serves as Administrative Governor and Chair of the Committees on Financial Stability, Federal Reserve Bank Affairs, Consumer and Community Affairs, and Payments, Clearing and Settlements. She previously served as the United States Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs and as Counselor to the Secretary of the Treasury from 2009 to 2013 where she received the Alexander Hamilton Award for her service. She was a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution from 2001 to 2009 and Vice President and Director of the Global Economy and Development Program from 2006 to 2009.  She served as Deputy National Economic Adviser and Deputy Assistant to the President from 1998 to 2000.  She previously was a member of the faculty at the MIT Sloan School of Management and worked at McKinsey & Company  She was awarded the Harvard GSAS Centennial Medal and the New York Association of Business Economics William F. Butler Award in 2019.  – Wikipedia

GMM comments:   Shorting Mnuchin seems free money to us.  The people have spoken. LB born outside the U.S., which renders her, according to the Constituion, inelgible to assume the presidency.  We suspect she is from a miliatry family and would probably be an exception, as was John McCain, who was born in Panama, during his presidential run. 

Constitution
The phrase “natural-born citizen” appears in the U.S. Constitution. In order to become the President or Vice President of the United States, a person must be a natural-born citizen. This “Natural-Born Citizen Clause” is located in Section 1 of Article 2 of the United States Constitution.

The constitution does not expressly define “natural born” nor has the Supreme Court ever ruled precisely upon its meaning. One can be a citizen while not being a “natural born” citizen if, for example, that person gained citizenship through the process of naturalization.  – Cornell Law

 

Secretary of State

SR

Susan Elizabeth Rice (born November 17, 1964) is an American diplomat, policy advisor, politician, former public official, philosopher and screenwriter who served as the 27th United States Ambassador to the United Nations from 2009 to 2013 and as the 24th United States National Security Advisor from 2013 to 2017.Rice was born in Washington, D.C., and attended Stanford University and New College at the University of Oxford, where she was a Rhodes Scholar and received a DPhil (PhD). She served on President Bill Clinton‘s National Security Council staff from 1993 to 1997 and was the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs at the State Department from 1997 to 2001. Appointed at age 32, Rice became the youngest person in U.S. history to serve as an Assistant Secretary of State. Rice’s tenure saw significant changes in U.S.–Africa policy, including the passage of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, support for democratic transitions in South Africa and Nigeria, and an increased U.S. focus on fighting HIV/AIDS. – Wikipedia

GMM comments:   Like the odds.

Secretary of Defense

MF

Michèle Angélique Flournoy (born December 14, 1960) is an American former government official who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy under President Bill Clinton and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy under President Barack Obama, as well as a principal advisor to U.S. Secretaries of DefenseRobert Gates and Leon Panetta from February 2009 to February 2012. During her tenure in the Clinton administration, Flournoy was the principal author of the May 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), which advocated the unilateral use of military power in defense of US interests.

While serving in the Obama administration, Flournoy crafted the administration’s policy of counter-insurgency in Afghanistanand helped persuade President Obama to intervene militarily in Libya.[3][4] When the U.S. Senate confirmed her nomination on February 9, 2009, she was at the time the highest-ranking woman at the Pentagon in the department’s history

In 2007, Flournoy co-founded the Center for a New American Security,[6] a for-profit Washington, D.C.-based think tank that specializes in U.S. national security issues. After leaving the Obama White House, Flournoy joined the Boston Consulting Group as a senior advisor, overseeing the development of $32 million in military contracts. In 2018, she joined the board of Booz Allen Hamilton, a publicly traded consulting firm with military contracts and cyber security expertise.[9] She is currently the co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors, and a Senior Fellow at Harvard‘s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. – Wikipedia

Attorney General

DJ

Gordon Douglas Jones (born May 4, 1954) is an American attorney, former prosecutor and politician serving as the junior United States Senator from Alabama since 2018. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the United States Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama from 1997 to 2001.

Jones was born in Fairfield, Alabama, and is a graduate of the University of Alabama and Cumberland School of Law at Samford University. After law school, he worked as a congressional staffer and as a federal prosecutor before moving to private practice. In 1997, President Bill Clinton appointed Jones as U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama. Jones’s most prominent cases were the successful prosecution of two Ku Klux Klan members for the 1963 Birmingham church bombing that killed four African-American girls and the indictment of domestic terrorist Eric Rudolph. He returned to private practice at the conclusion of Clinton’s presidency in 2001.

Jones announced his candidacy for United States Senate in the 2017 special election following the resignation of Republican incumbent Jeff Sessions to become U.S. Attorney General. After winning the Democratic primary in August, he faced former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore in the general election. Jones was considered a long-shot candidate in a deeply Republican state. A month before the election, Moore was alleged to have sexually assaulted and otherwise acted inappropriately with several females, including some who were minors at the time.[1] Jones won the special election by 22,000 votes, 50%–48%.

Jones is currently the only statewide elected Democrat in Alabama and the first Democrat to win statewide office since Lucy Baxley was elected President of the Alabama Public Service Commission in 2008. Democrats had not represented Alabama in the U.S. Senate since 1997, when Howell Heflin left office. Jones is considered a moderate Democrat who demonstrates a willingness to work with Republicans and split with his party on certain issues.

Jones ran for a full term in 2020, and lost to Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville. He is considered a leading contender for United States Attorney General in the Biden administration. – Wikipedia

GMM Comments:  This makes DJ a Saint, in our book:  Jones’s most prominent cases were the successful prosecution of two Ku Klux Klan members for the 1963 Birmingham church bombing that killed four African-American girls and the indictment of domestic terrorist Eric Rudolph.

 

 

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Can Low Inflation Withstand The Pandemic Recovery Effort?

We’ve always maintained inflation is not measured correctly just as the video assets as is the supply of “money.” We’ll go further, and have several times, and say “money“ cannot be even defined today. Stay tuned.

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Time For A Few Victory Laps

First, Carol K. nailed the Electoral College:

[Before our post, It’s Showtime: GMM/Grace Election Prediction, Global Macro Monitor conducted an internal poll about personal predictions on the election outcome.  Carol K.’s –>  Ok, my predictions: 305 EV Biden; wins pop vote by 5.937985%.   If Biden holds on to Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and can pull out Pennsylvania and Georgia after all the votes are counted, that gives Biden 306 EC votes.  Not bad, CK!]  – GMM, Nov 4th

See The Cook Report National Popular Vote Tracker.

She is also going to be pretty damn close when all the popular vote is counted.  If you haven’t seen Carol’s piece on, How It Happened,  run don’t walk.  It’s an absolute must-read.

DJ Takes Home the Green Jacket

Master’s Week in November. Whoa!

My top three picks this week for total money won:  Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Justin Thomas, with DJ taking home the Green Jacket. – GMM, Tuesday Nov 10th

DJ & “The Great One”

If you didn’t know, DJ is the future son-in-law (engaged since 2013 to Paulina) of the “Great One“, Wayne Gretsky.  His kids are born into one great gene pool.  The ultimate “Lucky Sperm Club.”

 

When Wayne Gretzky speaks, you listen. The NHL’s all-time leading scorer is the future father-in-law of World No. 1 Dustin Johnson, who is trying to close out the 84th Masters today and win his second career major title.

And while Gretzky might not be giving Johnson swing tips or putting drills to test out, The Great One knows plenty about winning at a high level and what it takes to get there. So, on that note, what kind of advice would he have for Johnson?

“I’ve told Dustin he has to be more like Tiger,” said Gretzky, speaking to GOLF senior writer Alan Shipnuck for a 2016 GOLF Magazine profile on Johnson. “I don’t mean he has to be Tiger — you only get a few athletes like that a century. But part of what made Tiger Tiger was relentlessness.” – Golf.com

New Record Score But The Dreaded *

Fore right!

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A True American Hero

This Navy Seal led the raid that captured Osama and was one of the few Four Stars that spoke out to save America.   His commencement speech at the University of Texas is a must-listen if you haven’t already heard it. It may change your life.  

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The Economics Of Wine

What does an economist know about wine? Given that many wines need years to mature, how can one predict which ones will be great or not? Princeton’s Orley Ashenfelter explains how he used economic principles and regression analysis to predict wine quality (and score great deals!). His research helped spawn an entire field dedicated to the economics of wine.

This video is based on the following paper: Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wines By Orley Ashenfelter https://www.researchgate.net/publicat…

More of Orley Ashenfelter’s work: https://irs.princeton.edu/people/orle…
Orley Ashenfelter’s vineyard: https://cedarrosevineyards.com/
Want to see more Economists in the Wild? Check out our series: https://mru.io/economists-wild-67905
.

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Masters Week: Champions Dinner, Bikini Wax, and Tiger

Masters_ImageClick here for the past menus from the Masters Champion Dinners.

I think Phil’s 2007 menu is my favorite.  Gotta love the barbecued ribs, chicken, sausage, and pulled pork, with coleslaw.

Click on the above link and check it out.  What’s your favorite menu of the past Champion dinners?

This Year: Tiger’s Choice

Here’s what Tiger – last year’s champion served up on Tuesday night:

Global Macro Monitor Masters Champions Dinner Menu

Here’s what our menu would like like if we had the honor of hosting the dinner, serving up something very fitting to our golf game.

Appetizer
Yips and Salsa
Chunky Chili Dip
Fried Egg Salad Served In A Greenside Bunker

Main Course
Duck Hook Soup
Lamb Shanks
Red Snapper (served off a tee box)

Dessert
Banana Slices
Snowman Ice Cream Cones

Drink Menu
DQ  Sparkling Water
Hosel Rocket Vineyard – 1997 Pinot Noir
T.C. Chen Double Hit – 1985 Chardonnay
OB Brewery Pale Ale

Served by Walter the Waiter.

Fore right!

Apr9_Masters Diinner

19th Hole Fodder:

Gary McCordBack in 1995, CBS television golf analyst Gary McCord got banned from the Masters for saying “they don’t cut the greens here at Augusta, they use bikini wax.” He also described the bumpy terrain as looking “suspiciously like body bags.”

These quotes are definitely not ideal for the Masters telecast, but it seems a warning or suspension could have been sufficient. McCord has a different type of humor, and his banter with David Feherty makes for good television. It would be nice to see him return to Augusta now that it’s been 16 years.

Tom Watson actually wrote a letter to CBS and the Masters chairman demanding that McCord be fired, and apparently this had a big effect on McCord’s future at the tournament.

McCord isn’t the first to be blackballed from the Masters. Jack Whitaker was taken off the air for comments during a playoff at the 1966 Masters when he called the gallery a “mob.” Whitaker’s suspension lasted four years.

Remember This?

Nike couldn’t ask for better marketing as the ball hung on the hole with the shoosh label was in perfect position.


Today’s First Round

Though play was suspended due to running out of daylight,  I like my three picks.  Justin Thomas 5 under after 10.  DJ in the hunt after 9, and Bryson after the double bogey he posted on No. 13 played the final 14 holes at 4 under.

Looks like my winning score of -12 is going to be way too high, and the course is setting up to break the lowest score in Masters history of 18 under par of 270, set by Tiger in 1997, and later equaled by Jordan Spieth in 2015.

Leaderboard

 

 

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QOTD: Inflationary Pressure In The Pipeline

QOTD = Quote of the Day

Inflationary pressures have started to return to
the manufacturing sector, with October seeing the first – albeit slight – increases in both input costs and output
prices since the first half of 2019. Demand conditions
across manufacturing and its supply chain look to be
returning to something that resembles ‘normal’, and so
more firms have started to up prices. – German PMI, Markit

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Masters Week: Amen Corner, Baby!


Amen Corner comes from a jazz album

The term ‘Amen Corner’- used to describe the series of holes around the 11th, the par three 12th and 13th holes – was first used in print by author Herbert Warren Wind in an issue of Sports Illustrated in 1958. However, in another piece 26 years later, he revealed that 1930’s jazz number entitled ‘Shoutin in that Amen Corner’ was his inspiration. – Golf 365


Read the full article here


Shouting At The Amen Corner

Brothers and sisters we got hypocrites in this crowd
Brothers and sisters some of you are shoutin’ too loud
You’ll find out on judgment day you can’t fool the Lord that way
Brothers and sisters hear all I’ve got to say

You can shout with all your might but if you ain’t livin’ right
There’s no use shoutin’ in that amen corner
If your name on that roll all that noise won’t save your soul
So stop your shoutin’ in that amen corner
Just because you’ve paid your dues doesn’t mean your saved
You can’t win them golden shoes if you haven’t behaved
you better think before you shout for your sins will find you out
So stop that shoutin’ in that amen corner

I can’t hear my own self praechin’
For your shoutin’ and your screachin’
You make me forget my text
Every meetin’ leaves me vexed
Why you come here and pray on Sunday
Then you serve the devil Monday
If you want to save your soul
Better get some self control

You can shout with all your might but if you ain’t livin’ right
There’s no use shoutin’ in that amen corner
If your name on that roll all that noise won’t save your soul
So stop your shoutin’ in that amen corner
Shoutin’ here don’t mean a thing if your playin; with fire
Change your ways or you won’t sing in that heavenly choir
Makes no difference how you look if your record ain’t in that book
You’ve heard my preachin’ every one
so put old satan on the run
So stop that shoutin’ in that amen corner

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