Category Archives: Trade War

“Phase 1” Of Potemkin Trade Deal Signed, Sealed, And Yet To Deliver

We have been busy collecting bets on the outcome of the U.S.-China Trade Deal. We never believed for one moment that China would cave on any of the big issues, such as restructuring its economy and any deal would be … Continue reading

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U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinking And It’s All China

  JANUARY 7, 2020 — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.1 billion in November, down $3.9 billion from $46.9 billion in October, revised November exports … Continue reading

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The Long-Term Damage Of The Trade War

“US farmers might not regain their market share even if a trade settlement is concluded with China.”  – South China Morning Post If you have been following the Global Macro Monitor over the past year, you know our thoughts on … Continue reading

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China Trade Talks And Presidential Stengelese

All right everyone, line up alphabetically according to your height. – Casey Stengel  US Pres Trump: We Have To Stand With Hong Kong But I’m Also Standing With President Xi – FOX News — LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) November 22, 2019

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Trade And Tariff Hysteresis

Hysteresis in the field of economics refers to an event in the economy that persists into the future, even after the factors that led to that event have been removed. – Investopedia I first heard the term hysteresis applied to … Continue reading

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Welcome To The Forever Trade War

Are you surprised?  We’re not (see our repost below). Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. #China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk … Continue reading

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China Still Looking For A Rollback

We posted our,  Roll back: The Verb China Is Looking For,  two months ago and China is still looking for a rollback on some of the tariffs that have already been implemented. What President Trump said is not what the markets expect. But … Continue reading

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Another Potemkin Trade Deal

Chalk up another meaningless, photo-op trade agreement with the recent U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement.   The country and, especially, American farmers would have been much better off staying in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The Japan deal is just another Potemkin trade … Continue reading

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Trump Is Now Compromised In China Trade Talks

The road to a credible China trade deal just got a bit narrower and bumpier after President Trump all but recruited China for his 2020 campaign.  China may not accept but they do now have a tremendous amount of more … Continue reading

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President Trump grants exemptions on 400 tariffs

Probably not the roll back China was looking for?

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