Today is Groundhog Day, and it feels like it, with the Trump Administration starting another trade war. This war will end when the countries appear to make some minimal concession so the president can declare victory. Or maybe this is the big kahuna.

Recall during his first administration NAFTA was tinkered with to allow the president to declare:

The USMCA is the largest, most significant, modern, and balanced trade agreement in history. All of our countries will benefit greatly. – Donald J. Trump

The IMF analysis of that deal was essentially, “big hat, no cattle.”

We’ve dusted off an old post for your review. 

Another Potemkin Trade Deal

Originally posted on October 10, 2019

Chalk up another meaningless, photo-op trade agreement with the recent U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement.   The country and, especially, American farmers would have been much better off staying in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

The Japan deal is just another Potemkin trade agreement that will not move the needle one centimeter in bringing jobs back to the United States as was promised.

The dominant loop in the algo to predict President Trump’s behavior with respect to just about everything is to reject all things Obama even if it damages the country.  It’s really not rocket science, folks.

Here’s Forbes on the Japan trade deal,

If you’re looking for evidence that a U.S.-China trade agreement is a pointless exercise in economic futility, consider Donald Trump’s non-deal with Japan.

…Late last month, he [Abe] gave Trump a “deal.” That, Trump figured, would enable him to claim a much-needed win on the global stage and get his impeachment troubles out of the headlines. Knowing this, Abe’s team skillfully watered down the deal—essentially to TPP levels. All it means is that U.S. farmers missed out on nearly three years of increased access to Japan, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Chile and elsewhere.

Yes, the man famed for the ghostwritten bestseller Art of the Deal got played by Japan’s negotiators. And soon, Xi Jinping’s trade team will be able to make the same boast. Any U.S.-China deal will be a cosmetic affair that gives Trump a “win” and President Xi clearance to make China’s rise great again.

Trump is desperate for a face-saving way to end the trade war. Fallout on U.S. farmers and consumers paying higher import prices is imperiling Trump’s reelection odds for 2020. Yet backing down to Beijing would create its own problems with Trump’s base. Xi’s men are well aware of this, just like Abe’s.  – Forbes, Oct 8th

We have been very critical of the Administration’s trade policy simply because there is none.