Category Archives: Monetary Policy

Maybe 25 bps

Posted on July 10, 2019 by

This should be baked in, and even a bit disappointing, but, like my Australian Shepherd, markets like to run.  Though hard to predict for how long. Since our May meeting, however, these crosscurrents have reemerged, creating greater uncertainty. Apparent progress … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Predictions Market On Fed Nominees

Posted on April 18, 2019 by

Prediction markets not pricing the confirmation of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board.  Stay tuned.  

Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

BFTP: The Biggest Risk At The Fed

Posted on April 3, 2019 by

BFTP = Blast From The Past It’s now been more than a year since this post.   We can’t take a victory lap on such nonsense but we will say, “we told you so.”   The consequences are gonna be … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

QOTD: More On Moore

Posted on March 23, 2019 by

QOTD = Quote of the Day Memo to Senate: Just Say No …today the president nominates Stephen Moore to be a Fed governor. Steve is a perfectly amiable guy, but he does not have the intellectual gravitas for this important … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

FOMC: Bid Adieu to QT

Posted on March 20, 2019 by

Just our quick take on today’s Fed. The major takeaway from today’s FOMC announcement is the end of QT in September with the cap moving down to $15 billion in the SOMA Treasury portfolio in May. The Committee intends to … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Grab Your Popcorn – Chair Powell On 60 Minutes

Posted on March 7, 2019 by

See press release here

Image | Posted on March 7, 2019 by | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Posted on January 29, 2019 by

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing

Posted on January 29, 2019 by

Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Gold Makes Its Move

Posted on January 25, 2019 by

The near futures closed over $1,300 for the first time since last June.  We will add if Monday’s price can stay and close above $1,300.  Markets perceive central banks are caving. Help keep the lights on at the Global Macro Monitor.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Gold, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Greenspan Cribbed “Irrational Exuberance” From Robert Shiller

Posted on January 12, 2019 by

Just cleaning up some old posts and thought you would find this one interesting. I have always been a big fan of the Yale prof, Robert Shiller, even before his Nobel Prize.  During my Wall Street days, a Yale professor … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Quotes, Robert Shiller, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment