Category Archives: Monetary Policy

Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading

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How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing

Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading

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Gold Makes Its Move

The near futures closed over $1,300 for the first time since last June.  We will add if Monday’s price can stay and close above $1,300.  Markets perceive central banks are caving. Help keep the lights on at the Global Macro Monitor.  … Continue reading

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Greenspan Cribbed “Irrational Exuberance” From Robert Shiller

Just cleaning up some old posts and thought you would find this one interesting. I have always been a big fan of the Yale prof, Robert Shiller, even before his Nobel Prize.  During my Wall Street days, a Yale professor … Continue reading

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The Automatic Tapering Of Quantitative Tightening

We heard a market pundit today mention the Fed will soon begin to taper its reduction in the balance sheet.  The pundit seemed convinced the balance sheet reduction is on track to total $600 billion per year as far as … Continue reading

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Fed Balance Sheet Run-Off Is Smaller Than Caps

We’re not sure if we heard Chairman Powell clarify the total balance sheet run-off for 2019, which is important as the pundits are throwing around a number a $600 billion reduction.   Completely false. We project the total run-off in 2019 … Continue reading

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Do You Believe In Omens?

After finishing my last post earlier tonight on how we may be misdiagnosing the ails of the market, I had this strange episode where I couldn’t breathe.  I really thought it was lights out. Last month I had a pain … Continue reading

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Inflation With A Draghi Tatoo?

Draghi: QE is part of our toolbox and can be considered to be useable by the Governing Council in contingencies. We’ve always considered this and it has now been sanctioned by the ECJ — European Central Bank (@ecb) December 13, … Continue reading

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Time To Tune Out Market Pundits

Fugly day in the stock market. We had to post a response to the market punditry rationalization on why stocks accelerated downward today: “the S&P500 broke its 200-day moving average.“ Are you fricking kidding me? The S&P500 has been under … Continue reading

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The S&P Levels You Need To Know

Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500.   In honor of George H.W. and George W.?  Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading

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