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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Category Archives: Monetary Policy
Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count
Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Balance Sheet, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy
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How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing
Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading
Gold Makes Its Move
The near futures closed over $1,300 for the first time since last June. We will add if Monday’s price can stay and close above $1,300. Markets perceive central banks are caving. Help keep the lights on at the Global Macro Monitor. … Continue reading
Greenspan Cribbed “Irrational Exuberance” From Robert Shiller
Just cleaning up some old posts and thought you would find this one interesting. I have always been a big fan of the Yale prof, Robert Shiller, even before his Nobel Prize. During my Wall Street days, a Yale professor … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy, Quotes, Robert Shiller, Uncategorized
Tagged Alan Greenspan, Irrational Exuberance, Rober Shiller
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The Automatic Tapering Of Quantitative Tightening
We heard a market pundit today mention the Fed will soon begin to taper its reduction in the balance sheet. The pundit seemed convinced the balance sheet reduction is on track to total $600 billion per year as far as … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Balance Sheet Reduction, Federal Reserve, QT
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Fed Balance Sheet Run-Off Is Smaller Than Caps
We’re not sure if we heard Chairman Powell clarify the total balance sheet run-off for 2019, which is important as the pundits are throwing around a number a $600 billion reduction. Completely false. We project the total run-off in 2019 … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged 2019 Reduction, Fed Balance Sheet, Run-off
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Do You Believe In Omens?
After finishing my last post earlier tonight on how we may be misdiagnosing the ails of the market, I had this strange episode where I couldn’t breathe. I really thought it was lights out. Last month I had a pain … Continue reading
Inflation With A Draghi Tatoo?
Draghi: QE is part of our toolbox and can be considered to be useable by the Governing Council in contingencies. We’ve always considered this and it has now been sanctioned by the ECJ — European Central Bank (@ecb) December 13, … Continue reading
Posted in Banking, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged ECB, Inflation, Mario Draghi, People's QE, QE
2 Comments
Time To Tune Out Market Pundits
Fugly day in the stock market. We had to post a response to the market punditry rationalization on why stocks accelerated downward today: “the S&P500 broke its 200-day moving average.“ Are you fricking kidding me? The S&P500 has been under … Continue reading
The S&P Levels You Need To Know
Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500. In honor of George H.W. and George W.? Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading
