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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Category Archives: Monetary Policy
Inflation: The Road Ahead For The Rest Of 2022
#CKStrong A reasonably informative video below, especially regarding inflation. Not much mention of the growth of money driving excess demand, however. M2 (thanks to the great Ed Yardeni for the charts) is still growing over 10 percent, in the U.S. … Continue reading
What Are Bond Yields & Breakevens Telling Us?
#CKStrong Carol K.’s ANC broke above 1200 today. Absolute Neutrophil Count (ANC ) measures a type of white blood cell that kill and digest bacteria and fungi to help the body fight infections and heal wounds. At a time … Continue reading
Why This QE Is Different In One Chart
Robin Hood traders don’t bother reading. The latest round of central bank balance sheet expansion, which will reaccelerate soon as Biden’s COVID bill is passed, needs some context. By the way, we did some rough approximations late last night and … Continue reading
Markets Have Jumped The Shark
Welcome to the Twilight Zone. Nothing seems real anymore — not the economy, not the markets, not the politics — and it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the difference between what is and what isn’t. It truly feels the economy, … Continue reading
The Last Central Banker With Balls
[Balls as in courage and bravery. Exemplified in the quote, “Margaret Thatcher was Ronald Reagan with balls.” Don’t get all PC on us now!] As a graduate student, I interviewed at the Federal Reserve Board in the Eccles Building on … Continue reading
Are Central Banks Ready To Break Their Codependency?
Breaking our radio silence as we couldn’t help ourselves after reading former NY Fed President William Dudley’s piece imploring the Fed to stop enabling Trump’s trade war. It sounds like central bankers are starting to realize they are, and have been, … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Bill Dudley, Central Banks, Codendency, Enablers
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Maybe 25 bps
This should be baked in, and even a bit disappointing, but, like my Australian Shepherd, markets like to run. Though hard to predict for how long. Since our May meeting, however, these crosscurrents have reemerged, creating greater uncertainty. Apparent progress … Continue reading
Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
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Predictions Market On Fed Nominees
Prediction markets not pricing the confirmation of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board. Stay tuned.
BFTP: The Biggest Risk At The Fed
BFTP = Blast From The Past It’s now been more than a year since this post. We can’t take a victory lap on such nonsense but we will say, “we told you so.” The consequences are gonna be … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Doves versus Hawks, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Open seats
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