Category Archives: Monetary Policy

Markets Have Jumped The Shark

Posted on July 1, 2020 by

Welcome to the Twilight Zone.    Nothing seems real anymore — not the economy, not the markets, not the politics — and it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the difference between what is and what isn’t.  It truly feels the economy, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 11 Comments

The Last Central Banker With Balls

Posted on December 9, 2019 by

[Balls as in courage and bravery.  Exemplified in the quote,  “Margaret Thatcher was Ronald Reagan with balls.”  Don’t get all PC on us now!] As a graduate student, I interviewed at the Federal Reserve Board in the Eccles Building on … Continue reading →

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Are Central Banks Ready To Break Their Codependency?

Posted on August 27, 2019 by

Breaking our radio silence as we couldn’t help ourselves after reading former NY Fed President William Dudley’s piece imploring the Fed to stop enabling Trump’s  trade war. It sounds like central bankers are starting to realize they are, and have been, … Continue reading →

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Maybe 25 bps

Posted on July 10, 2019 by

This should be baked in, and even a bit disappointing, but, like my Australian Shepherd, markets like to run.  Though hard to predict for how long. Since our May meeting, however, these crosscurrents have reemerged, creating greater uncertainty. Apparent progress … Continue reading →

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Predictions Market On Fed Nominees

Posted on April 18, 2019 by

Prediction markets not pricing the confirmation of Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board.  Stay tuned.  

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BFTP: The Biggest Risk At The Fed

Posted on April 3, 2019 by

BFTP = Blast From The Past It’s now been more than a year since this post.   We can’t take a victory lap on such nonsense but we will say, “we told you so.”   The consequences are gonna be … Continue reading →

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QOTD: More On Moore

Posted on March 23, 2019 by

QOTD = Quote of the Day Memo to Senate: Just Say No …today the president nominates Stephen Moore to be a Fed governor. Steve is a perfectly amiable guy, but he does not have the intellectual gravitas for this important … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

FOMC: Bid Adieu to QT

Posted on March 20, 2019 by

Just our quick take on today’s Fed. The major takeaway from today’s FOMC announcement is the end of QT in September with the cap moving down to $15 billion in the SOMA Treasury portfolio in May. The Committee intends to … Continue reading →

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Grab Your Popcorn – Chair Powell On 60 Minutes

Posted on March 7, 2019 by

See press release here

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Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Posted on January 29, 2019 by

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment