Category Archives: Monetary Policy

QOTD: More On Moore

Posted on March 23, 2019 by

QOTD = Quote of the Day Memo to Senate: Just Say No …today the president nominates Stephen Moore to be a Fed governor. Steve is a perfectly amiable guy, but he does not have the intellectual gravitas for this important … Continue reading →

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FOMC: Bid Adieu to QT

Posted on March 20, 2019 by

Just our quick take on today’s Fed. The major takeaway from today’s FOMC announcement is the end of QT in September with the cap moving down to $15 billion in the SOMA Treasury portfolio in May. The Committee intends to … Continue reading →

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Grab Your Popcorn – Chair Powell On 60 Minutes

Posted on March 7, 2019 by

See press release here

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Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Posted on January 29, 2019 by

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading →

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How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing

Posted on January 29, 2019 by

Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading →

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Gold Makes Its Move

Posted on January 25, 2019 by

The near futures closed over $1,300 for the first time since last June.  We will add if Monday’s price can stay and close above $1,300.  Markets perceive central banks are caving. Help keep the lights on at the Global Macro Monitor.  … Continue reading →

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Greenspan Cribbed “Irrational Exuberance” From Robert Shiller

Posted on January 12, 2019 by

Just cleaning up some old posts and thought you would find this one interesting. I have always been a big fan of the Yale prof, Robert Shiller, even before his Nobel Prize.  During my Wall Street days, a Yale professor … Continue reading →

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The Automatic Tapering Of Quantitative Tightening

Posted on January 9, 2019 by

We heard a market pundit today mention the Fed will soon begin to taper its reduction in the balance sheet.  The pundit seemed convinced the balance sheet reduction is on track to total $600 billion per year as far as … Continue reading →

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Fed Balance Sheet Run-Off Is Smaller Than Caps

Posted on January 6, 2019 by

We’re not sure if we heard Chairman Powell clarify the total balance sheet run-off for 2019, which is important as the pundits are throwing around a number a $600 billion reduction.   Completely false. We project the total run-off in 2019 … Continue reading →

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Do You Believe In Omens?

Posted on December 18, 2018 by

After finishing my last post earlier tonight on how we may be misdiagnosing the ails of the market, I had this strange episode where I couldn’t breathe.  I really thought it was lights out. Last month I had a pain … Continue reading →

Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged | 10 Comments