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Category Archives: Sovereign Risk
Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?
We are reposting an oldie but goldie piece, given the market jitters over Credit-Suisse. We are baffled by the conventional wisdom that a bank run or crisis is deflationary. Yes, in the early 1930s, when the Fed and other central … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bank Assets to GDP, European Banking Crisis, Swiss Franc
1 Comment
Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?
Repost of an oldie but goldie, (as in a decade old), especially relevant given the rumors in today’s market. Here’s to hoping the policymakers have rectified some of the issues, but in our experience goveventments are reactive to a crisis … Continue reading
Swan Lake – July 5
Dull. Boring markets. Fireworks start tomorrow with the first shots are fired in the trade war. The Trump administration has painted itself into a corner and the only way out is a unilateral capitulation on his part. EM Forget about. … Continue reading
When The U.S. Government Defaulted
One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold clause cases” of the 1930s, … Continue reading
Better Than Crypto
The world’s hottest investment. Thank you, Japan. The land of the rising Ohtani-San! World’s best investment. Thank you, Japan. The land of the rising Ohtani-San! https://t.co/hA1n8O4Efh — Gregor Samsa (@macromon) April 12, 2018
The Broken Bond Market
The Fed tightens on Wednesday and bonds rally. What the hay? GaveKal, Jeff Gundlach, and Jim Bianco nailed it in that every spec and their mother are/were short 10-year Treasuries. Source: Quandl (see here for interactive chart) But this is … Continue reading
Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bond Market, Bond Yields, Bubbles, Distortions, Monetary Policy, Quantitative Easing
58 Comments
European bonds suffer from uncertainty – FT
Keep some powder dry to buy the French Dip. That is, the market panic over the Euro elections, if there is one. The French will hold the populist “Maginot Line” and Le Pen will lose in the second round, “bigly“. … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Politics, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized
Tagged European elections, France, Germany, Netherlands
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Russia’s planned bond issuance – FT
The FT’s Neil Buckley explains the implications of Russia’s planned bond issuance, as the combination of sanctions and low oil prices put pressure on the economy. For more video content from the Financial Times, visit http://www.FT.com/video (click here if video … Continue reading
WTF Were They Thinking?
That’s our System 1 (fast) thinking kicking in after hearing the news of the Cyprus bail-in of depositors. Our fast thinking really fears contagion and makes us want to vendere la casa! We often get into trouble trading with … Continue reading
Posted in ECB, Equities, Euro, Germany, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bail in, Cyprus, Depositor
7 Comments
Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Since Italy’s Election
ECB president, Mario Draghi, spoke in this morning’s press conference about how contagion has been contained in the eurozone bond markets since the Italian elections. The data are in and he is right. The markets had closed before the election … Continue reading
Posted in German Bund, Germany, Italian Yields, Italy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bond Yields, Eurozone Spreads, Italy, Spain
1 Comment
Global Macro Monitor 