Category Archives: Budget Deficit

Black Swan Hunting

Posted on August 22, 2020 by macromon

While the macro boys at GMM are off hunting Black Swans,  I am making money to keep the lights on. – Carol K., GMM, August 11th Yes, Carol K is correct, and we thank her for keeping the lights on at … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Coach C, Tail Risk | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

U.S. Treasury Borrowing & QE Forever

Posted on January 13, 2020 by macromon

The U.S. Treasury recently released the December monthly statement, which put us to work crunching the data.  Note the Treasury is on an October-September fiscal year.  We are using calendar years in our analysis. Federal Borrowing From The Public The … Continue reading →

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President Trump Is Not Your Father’s Conservative

Posted on July 12, 2019 by macromon

Summary The U.S. government’s cumulative monthly deficits in the first 29 months of the Trump Administration has almost doubled from the prior 29 months The sum of monthly deficits totaled $1.08 trillion during the period Sep. ’14 to Jan ’17 … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Charts, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Diagnosing What Ails The Market

Posted on December 17, 2018 by macromon

My father-in-law died of rectal melanoma, a disease so rare his doctors didn’t even know it existed.  He was diagnosed with having a rectal fissure.   He lived with some discomfort until I called him one night.  Slurring his words, he … Continue reading →

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Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind

Posted on November 12, 2018 by macromon

At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market,  The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0,  which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments

America Thirst: China’s Flows Worrisome – Art Cashin

Posted on October 24, 2018 by macromon

Just before the close, Art Cashin, one of the best out there, cited the weak Treasury auctions and, ergo, worries China is pulling back on its Treasury purchases as a major factor behind the ugly stock sell-off. Click here for … Continue reading →

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The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Posted on September 21, 2018 by macromon

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

When The U.S. Government Defaulted

Posted on May 24, 2018 by macromon

One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold clause cases” of the 1930s, … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 43 Comments

QOTD: Druck On Distorted Interest Rates

Posted on May 13, 2018 by macromon

…today we have settled to allowing the most important price of all, long-term interest rates, to be regularly distorted by public intervention. …If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exact exactly what the world’s central … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics, Interest Rates, Quote of the Day, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment