Tag Archives: Emerging Markets

Ten Plus Plus Great Weekend Reads – March 15

Markets Active investors are depressed, but not depressed enough – FT Over his long and illustrious career, Mr Buffett has beaten the market handily, but over the past 10 years, the return of Berkshire Hathaway shares is 274 per cent. … Continue reading

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A life of boom and bust: Can Argentina break the cycle?

A century ago, Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world. But crisis after crisis has earned it the dubious distinction of being the only nation ever to regress to developing country status. With hyperinflation, devaluations and … Continue reading

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The Interest Rate Paradox In Emerging Markets

In advanced economies, interest rates fall during recessions as investors replace risky assets such as stocks with safe assets such as bonds and cash. This makes fiscal stimulus easier. Everywhere else, recessions create fears of debt default or debt monetization … Continue reading

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Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind

At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market,  The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0,  which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments

Brazil’s Presidential Election….

Looks like off to Round II — October 28th — as no candidate set to receive 50 percent of the first round vote, with Brazil’s Trump fanboy securing around 45 percent of the vote. Note, Brazil’s similar gender divide in … Continue reading

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Crude Reality For Emerging Markets

This chart comes to us via the “Polish Swish,” known for his nuttin’ but net baseline jumper.  It illustrates the local pain of rising oil prices in a few selected emerging markets. Crude oil is priced in dollars, and countries … Continue reading

Posted in Crude Oil, Currency, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 43 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Asian markets versus other developing economies – FT

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Month In Review – August 2018

Summary Turkey 10-year up almost 300 bps in August Brazil 10-year up 102 bps Italy 10-year up 52 bps U.S. & German 10-year 10 bps lower US credit spreads relatively stable in August Argentina peso crashes Turkish lira crashes South … Continue reading

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