Tag Archives: Brazil

Could Mounting Crises Sink Brazil’s Bolsonaro?

Even with a political career full of controversy and condemnation, Jair Bolsonaro built a new coalition of voters and won the Brazilian presidential election in a landslide. Now, he’ll need every bit of fervent support he’s gained as a cascade … Continue reading

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Bolsonaro sworn in as Brazil’s next president

Bolso’s FinMin, Paulo Guedes and his team of “Chicago Boys” are very market-friendly and potentially transformative for the Brazilan economy.  The question is does Bolsonaro have the political skills to see the reforms through? The animal spirits of a new … Continue reading

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The Interest Rate Paradox In Emerging Markets

In advanced economies, interest rates fall during recessions as investors replace risky assets such as stocks with safe assets such as bonds and cash. This makes fiscal stimulus easier. Everywhere else, recessions create fears of debt default or debt monetization … Continue reading

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The moment ‘Brazil’s Donald Trump’ is stabbed at election rally

RARELY has the aphorism “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” been more apt… Doctors said Mr Bolsonaro will be hospitalised for at least a week. But with a month left before the first round of the election on October … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 18

Same story, different day. Euro periphery continues to recover with short-end outperforming. EM LatAm currencies stable x/ Brazil.   South Africa lower. Brazil and Mexican stocks lower.    

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Every Little Thing They Do On Trade Is Tragic

And Half Baked. Every little thing they do on trade is tragic Everything they do is wrong Even though the politics are more dramatic Now I know trade diversion in steel is on — paraphrasing Sting’s, Every Little Thing She … Continue reading

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How Brazil’s Once Mighty “Lula” Has Fallen

There doesn’t seem a day that goes by without a political scandal in some emerging market rocking the tape.  Check that.  Add also developed markets.    Brazil, Pakistan, Mozambique, and, yes, even the United States. But today’s nine and half year … Continue reading

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Emerging Market Dollar Bonds: An Option Based Analysis

In my prior life I used to trade emerging market (EM) bonds and came up with the following analytical framework using options analysis to understand and teach the basic fundamental principles of how to value EM hard currency bonds.   The … Continue reading

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Almost All World’s Currencies Undervalued

We’ve put together a couple of tables showing the undervaluation of the world’s currencies based on their 2016 purchasing power parity against the U.S. dollar. The Purchasing-power-parity (PPP) between two countries is the rate at which the currency of one … Continue reading

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