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Tag Archives: Presidential Election
It’s Showtime: GMM/Grace Election Prediction
Corrections Correction posted at 8:41 PM PT, November 2 – Our original post earlier this evening assigned too many EC votes to Michigan, 26 instead of the correct 16. We have now corrected the mistake and made the appropriate edits. … Continue reading
The moment ‘Brazil’s Donald Trump’ is stabbed at election rally
RARELY has the aphorism “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” been more apt… Doctors said Mr Bolsonaro will be hospitalised for at least a week. But with a month left before the first round of the election on October … Continue reading
Posted in Emerging Markets, Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, Presidential Election
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Mexico: Obrador holds 11-point lead
MEXICO CITY – Mexican leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a nearly 11 percentage point lead over his closest rival ahead of the July presidential election, a poll published by newspaper El Universal on Monday showed. López Obrador has capitalized on … Continue reading
Posted in Mexico, Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged El Universal, Mexico, Obrador, Polls, Presidential Election
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Our Quick Analysis of the U.S. Presidential Election
Why did everyone miss it? Polls and pundits missed it due to “Bradley Effect” — “The Bradley effect (less commonly known as the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some … Continue reading
Posted in Euro, Politics
Tagged Latino Vote, Politics, Popular Vote, Presidential Election, Trump
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Post Election S&P500 Returns
We wanted to update our table S&P500 returns post presidential elections. As illustrated, the returns are relatively positive. This is especially true if the swan years of 2000, the contested election, and 2008, during the financial collapse are excluded. … Continue reading
It’s Showtime!
Let’s light this candle! We won’t be posting during election day. As they say in __________ “vote early and vote often“! Just pulling your Markov chain. (click here if video is not observable)
Romney Takes Electoral College Lead At Real Clear
This is the first time we’ve seen Romney take the lead in the electoral college at RealClearPolitics. The governor has also opened up a 7 point lead in the national Gallup daily tracking poll among likely voters and seems to … Continue reading
August Presidential Polls vs. Final Vote Count
It’s August and time to start thinking about the Presidential election though nothing really matters until after Labor Day, in our opinion, especially in a race that is so tight. The latest Gallup tracking poll of registered voters has the … Continue reading
Posted in Politics
Tagged Gallup Tracking, Governor Romney, Polls, President Obama, Presidential Election
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Issues in the French presidential run-off
(click here if video is not observable)
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Politics
Tagged France, Hollande, Merkozy, Presidential Election, Sarkozy
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Stratfor: Mexico’s Presidential Election
(click here if video is not observable)