Tag Archives: Presidential Election

It’s Showtime: GMM/Grace Election Prediction

Posted on November 2, 2020 by

Corrections Correction posted at 8:41 PM PT, November 2 –  Our original post earlier this evening assigned too many EC votes to Michigan, 26 instead of the correct 16.  We have now corrected the mistake and made the appropriate edits. … Continue reading →

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The moment ‘Brazil’s Donald Trump’ is stabbed at election rally

Posted on September 9, 2018 by

RARELY has the aphorism “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” been more apt… Doctors said Mr Bolsonaro will be hospitalised for at least a week. But with a month left before the first round of the election on October … Continue reading →

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Mexico: Obrador holds 11-point lead

Posted on April 9, 2018 by

MEXICO CITY – Mexican leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a nearly 11 percentage point lead over his closest rival ahead of the July presidential election, a poll published by newspaper El Universal on Monday showed. López Obrador has capitalized on … Continue reading →

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Our Quick Analysis of the U.S. Presidential Election

Posted on November 18, 2016 by

Why did everyone miss it? Polls and pundits missed it due to “Bradley Effect” — “The Bradley effect (less commonly known as the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some … Continue reading →

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Post Election S&P500 Returns

Posted on November 20, 2012 by

We wanted to update our table S&P500 returns post presidential elections.   As illustrated,  the returns are relatively positive.  This is especially true if the swan years of 2000, the contested election, and 2008, during the financial collapse are excluded.   … Continue reading →

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It’s Showtime!

Posted on November 5, 2012 by

Let’s light this candle! We won’t be posting during election day.   As they say in __________  “vote early and vote often“!  Just pulling your Markov chain. (click here if video is not observable) 

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Romney Takes Electoral College Lead At Real Clear

Posted on October 18, 2012 by

This is the first time we’ve seen Romney take the lead in the electoral college at RealClearPolitics.  The governor has also opened up a 7 point lead in the national Gallup daily tracking poll among likely voters and seems to … Continue reading →

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August Presidential Polls vs. Final Vote Count

Posted on August 6, 2012 by

It’s August and time to start thinking about the Presidential election though nothing really matters until after Labor Day,  in our opinion,  especially in a race that is so tight.   The latest Gallup tracking poll of registered voters has the … Continue reading →

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Issues in the French presidential run-off

Posted on May 3, 2012 by

(click here if video is not observable)

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Stratfor: Mexico’s Presidential Election

Posted on April 1, 2012 by

(click here if video is not observable)

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