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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Tag Archives: Polls
More Brexit Polling
More than half the public – 55% – now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll. …If a second referendum … Continue reading
Mexico: Obrador holds 11-point lead
MEXICO CITY – Mexican leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a nearly 11 percentage point lead over his closest rival ahead of the July presidential election, a poll published by newspaper El Universal on Monday showed. López Obrador has capitalized on … Continue reading
Posted in Mexico, Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged El Universal, Mexico, Obrador, Polls, Presidential Election
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Presidential Polls and Prediction Markets
Great piece by PBS NewsHour on divining the polls and predicting the next POTUS. Ray Fair’s economic model is fascinating. BTW, Romney’s probability of becoming the next POTUS has doubled in the past few weeks at Intrade. The VEEP debate … Continue reading
August Presidential Polls vs. Final Vote Count
It’s August and time to start thinking about the Presidential election though nothing really matters until after Labor Day, in our opinion, especially in a race that is so tight. The latest Gallup tracking poll of registered voters has the … Continue reading
Posted in Politics
Tagged Gallup Tracking, Governor Romney, Polls, President Obama, Presidential Election
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Romney’s Odds Ramp on Deteriorating Employment Data
Check out the trading at Intrade right around the employment data released this morning. The odds of Romney winning the November election ramped about 3 percentage points right after the jobs number was released. Rahm Emmanuel in an interview with … Continue reading
