Tag Archives: Polls

More Brexit Polling

More than half the public – 55% – now think it would have been better never to have held the EU referendum given the difficulties of reaching an agreement on Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll. …If a second referendum … Continue reading

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Mexico: Obrador holds 11-point lead

MEXICO CITY – Mexican leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a nearly 11 percentage point lead over his closest rival ahead of the July presidential election, a poll published by newspaper El Universal on Monday showed. López Obrador has capitalized on … Continue reading

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Presidential Polls and Prediction Markets

Great piece by PBS NewsHour  on divining the polls and predicting the next POTUS.   Ray Fair’s economic model is fascinating. BTW,  Romney’s probability of becoming the next POTUS  has doubled in the past few weeks at Intrade.  The VEEP debate … Continue reading

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August Presidential Polls vs. Final Vote Count

It’s August and time to start thinking about the Presidential election though nothing really matters until after Labor Day,  in our opinion,  especially in a race that is so tight.   The latest Gallup tracking poll of registered voters has the … Continue reading

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Romney’s Odds Ramp on Deteriorating Employment Data

Check out the trading at Intrade right around the employment data released this morning.  The odds of Romney winning the November election ramped about 3 percentage points right after the jobs number was released. Rahm Emmanuel in an interview with … Continue reading

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