Tag Archives: Intrade

Arbitraging the Intrade Volatility

U.S. stocks are not the only market experiencing volatility these days.  Take a look at the presidential contract over at Intrade. We logged on tonight and found the President’s probability of winning the election had fallen to almost 51 percent … Continue reading

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Presidential Polls and Prediction Markets

Great piece by PBS NewsHour  on divining the polls and predicting the next POTUS.   Ray Fair’s economic model is fascinating. BTW,  Romney’s probability of becoming the next POTUS  has doubled in the past few weeks at Intrade.  The VEEP debate … Continue reading

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Romney’s Odds Ramp on Deteriorating Employment Data

Check out the trading at Intrade right around the employment data released this morning.  The odds of Romney winning the November election ramped about 3 percentage points right after the jobs number was released. Rahm Emmanuel in an interview with … Continue reading

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