Category Archives: Economics

Meet Me In St. Louis Not On The Streets Of Philadelphia

Source: Shane Oliver  @ShaneOliverAMP This is about as close as we will get to a pure lab experiment measuring the efficacy nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) intended to reduce infectious contacts, folks. The 1918 influenza pandemic resulted an estimated 500,000–675,000 deaths in … Continue reading

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Stages Of A Pandemic: Denial, Panic, Fear, and Rationality

We’ve been accused of panicking. It just ain’t so, Joe, as our M.O. is to try and panic before everyone else. What will be the big negative shock that shakes the tree loose?   Your guess is as good as ours … Continue reading

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Coronavirus, You’re On Your Own

Say what you will about Chris but he has nailed the coronavirus from the beginning.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Are We Cheap Yet?

One helluva weak week for the stock market.  Three of the five largest Dow point flops in history.  Yes, we have already been lectured like a little schoolboy by the Twitterati geniuses “it is the percentage drops that count.”  No … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 16 Comments

S&P’s Beastly Streak: Five Consecutive Red Candlesticks

Extremely ugly price action today with the S&P reversing a 54.30 point gain to close down 11.82 points, carving out a 5th consecutive red daily candlestick. Such an ungodly losing streak is relatively rare and has not happened since the … Continue reading

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The Supply Chain Gangbangers

I had a conversation last night with a friend who works in construction management. She said her side of the business is screeching to a halt as the company can’t get materials and furniture out of China.   True story. WTF?  … Continue reading

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Coronavirus Pandemic: The Next Two Weeks Are Critical

Chris Martenson. Ph.D. from Duke in Toxicology is very good on this topic and one of the first out with a correct analysis of the coronavirus.  We posted his first video when there were only a few thousand cases reported. … Continue reading

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COTD: Coronavirus Risk To Manufacturing

The holiday is over, but few people are back in offices and factories…the effects of covid-19 will be like those of SARS in 2003: a sharp shock to Chinese growth, followed by a strong rebound. But SARS may not be a … Continue reading

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Tesla Is Off The Charts

Tesla is gapping up 12% after hours after releasing earnings. We know several shorts who have been destroyed over the past six months.   The stock is up 270 percent from its June lows.  Rather stunning. This comes after the company … Continue reading

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Global Auto Sector Hit Hard By Coronavirus

By Taleb’s pure definition, the Coronavirus is a true “Black Swan.” The first cases of the pneumonia-like coronavirus were reported in Wuhan, China on Dec. 31, 2019. Since then, the virus has spread to various other countries, including Thailand, Japan, … Continue reading

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