-
In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
Contribute To GMM
Categories
- 3D Printing
- Agriculture
- AI
- Algos
- Apple
- Automation
- Banking
- BFTP
- Bitcoin
- Black Swan Watch
- Bonds
- Brazil
- Brexit
- BRICs
- Budget Deficit
- Capital Flows
- Cartoon of the Day
- Cashless Society
- Chart of the Day
- Charts
- China
- Clean Tech
- Climate Change
- Commodities
- Credit
- Crude Oil
- Currency
- Cyprus
- Daily Risk Monitor
- Day In History
- Debt
- Demographics
- Dollar
- Earnings
- ECB
- Economics
- Economist
- Egypt
- Electric Vehicles
- Emerging Markets
- Employment
- Energy
- Environment
- Equities
- Equity
- Euro
- Eurozone Sovereign Spreads
- Exchange Rates
- Fed
- Finance and the Good Society
- FinTech
- Fiscal Cliff Monitor
- Fiscal Policy
- Food Prices
- France
- Futurist
- Game Theory
- General Interest
- Geopolitical
- German Bund
- Germany
- Global Stock Performance
- Global Trend Indicators
- Gold
- Greece
- Heat Map
- Hedge Funds
- Housing
- Human Interest
- Immigration
- India
- Inflation/Deflation
- Infographics
- Innovation
- Institutional Investors
- Interest Rate Monitor
- Interest Rates
- Interviews
- Italian Yields
- Italy
- Japan
- Jobs
- Lectures
- Macro Notes from Conference Calls
- Manufacturing
- Masters
- Mexico
- Monetary Policy
- Movies
- Muni Bonds
- Muni Market
- Natural Gas
- News
- Nonlinear Thinking
- North Korea
- Overbought Markets
- Picture of the Day
- PIIGS
- PMIs
- Policy
- Politics
- Population
- Poverty
- President Trump
- Qunat Strategies
- Quote of the Day
- Quotes
- Rare Earth Elements
- Reads
- Real Estate
- Relative Strength Index
- Robert Shiller
- RSIs
- S&P500
- Sector ETF Peformance
- Social Media
- Song for the Week
- Sovereign Debt
- Sovereign Risk
- Spain
- Sports
- State and Local Government
- Tail Risk
- Technical Analysis
- Technology
- The Weekend Read
- This Day In Financial History
- Trade War
- Trades
- Tweet of the Day
- Ugly Chart Contest
- Uncategorized
- US Releases
- Video
- Volatility
- Wages
- Week Ahead
- Week in Review
- Weekend Reads
- Weekly Eurozone Watch
- Whales
-
Recent Posts
Meta
Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
Millennials Rising, Market Risk Increasing
Righteous! Check out today’s cover of the Economist. It confirms our ongoing analysis and illustrates why you should read the Global Macro Monitor, folks. It’s been almost exactly one year to the date since we posted, Karl, The Comeback Kid? We warned … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Politics, Uncategorized
Tagged AOC, Millennials, MMT, QE, Soros, Stocks
Leave a comment
Hmmmm…
I’m focused on the picture in the People’s Daily tweet. Are those what I think they are? China has been keeping its promises to uphold environmental protection since the first global commitment in 1972. Over 40 years gone by since … Continue reading
Deutsche Bank – Nein Schadenfreude
Source: Urban Dictionary Doing the rounds: Is Deutsche the new Lehman? Social media postings about Deutsche Bank more than quadrupled, and Twitter sentiment is negative. pic.twitter.com/Hq4mgnbQzv — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 10, 2018 Hat tip to Holger for pointing this … Continue reading
Posted in Banking, Black Swan Watch, Uncategorized
Tagged Banking, Deutsche Bank, Schadenfreude
Leave a comment
Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins
We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis. Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading
The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot…
We posted the following in July after President Trump threw Montenegro under the bus. Taiwan may be about to get hot, hot, hot in the next year after last night’s Commander in Chief’s ambiguous message on defense treaties. – GMM One … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized
Tagged China, One China Policy, Taiwan Strait
22 Comments
On This Day In History: The Fed Put Is Born
Or, at least, went into labor. Wow, three decades and one year today, I was a young economist at the World Bank. My friend and I, now the chief economist at the FDIC, were graduate students and walked … Continue reading
The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market
Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading
Long-Term Treasury: 4 Percent Or Bust
Great chart from Charlie B. He asked 3.5 or 2.5 percent? We say beeline to 4 percent, when the rate breaks 3.13 percent, and quicker than the market believes. It’s been 10 years since Lehman, nominal GDP is growing close … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized
Tagged 10-year interest rate
1 Comment
Dalio on Turkey, Argentina, and the Next Economic Downturn
Sep.12 — Ray Dalio, co-chairman and founder at Bridgewater Associates, examines the crises is Turkey and Argentina and explains his expectations for the next economic downturn. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized
Tagged Argentina, Ray Dalio, Turkey
Leave a comment
Other Fowl Plays In The Emerging Markets
Fowl Play? The Twisted Linguistics of Turkey American turkeys and African guinea fowl, victims of Portuguese vagary, became inextricably mixed. Today the geographically garbled turkey is known as dinde (from poule d’Inde or chicken of India) in France, kalkoen (from Calicut hen) in the Netherlands, and indjushka (Indian … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized
Tagged Argentina, Emerging Markets, Fed, Gold, Turkey
13 Comments
