Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

Our good friend, King David, just forwarded this Bloomberg headline to remind us of a post we made back in 2018, which we have reposted below.  Maybe, or maybe not, but you should have the following analysis in your quiver, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?

Repost of an oldie but goldie, (as in a decade old), especially relevant given the rumors in today’s market.  Here’s to hoping the policymakers have rectified some of the issues, but in our experience goveventments are reactive to a crisis … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Time For Some Context, Again

Money Fueled Bubble Speculative manias gather speed through expansion of money and credit. Most expansions of money and credit do not lead to a mania; there are many more economic expansions than there are manias. But every mania has been … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Equities | Tagged , , | 10 Comments

GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now?

Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Coronavirus, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments

Coronavirus, You’re On Your Own

Say what you will about Chris but he has nailed the coronavirus from the beginning.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Are We Cheap Yet?

One helluva weak week for the stock market.  Three of the five largest Dow point flops in history.  Yes, we have already been lectured like a little schoolboy by the Twitterati geniuses “it is the percentage drops that count.”  No … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 17 Comments

Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!

Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days.   Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx?    We … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus

Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame.  It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

BFTP: Rare Earth Day 5.0

BFTP:  Blast From The Past Wow, here is a blast from the past.  Ahhhh, the daze of trading rare earfs! Watch this one, folks.  It may play big in the trade war with China. Rare earth minerals could be weaponized … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , | Leave a comment

We Have Lift Off! (in the $)

  Can’t believe that was fiddy years past.  Going to see the new Apollo 11 flick on Saturday with my 15-year old daughter, who wants to be an astrophysicist. Back to biz… The Dixie – “To the Moon, Alice” Another … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment