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Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?
We are reposting an oldie but goldie piece, given the market jitters over Credit-Suisse. We are baffled by the conventional wisdom that a bank run or crisis is deflationary. Yes, in the early 1930s, when the Fed and other central … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bank Assets to GDP, European Banking Crisis, Swiss Franc
1 Comment
Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins
Our good friend, King David, just forwarded this Bloomberg headline to remind us of a post we made back in 2018, which we have reposted below. Maybe, or maybe not, but you should have the following analysis in your quiver, … Continue reading
Seriously? Swissie a Safe Haven During a Banking Crisis?
Repost of an oldie but goldie, (as in a decade old), especially relevant given the rumors in today’s market. Here’s to hoping the policymakers have rectified some of the issues, but in our experience goveventments are reactive to a crisis … Continue reading
Time For Some Context, Again
Money Fueled Bubble Speculative manias gather speed through expansion of money and credit. Most expansions of money and credit do not lead to a mania; there are many more economic expansions than there are manias. But every mania has been … Continue reading
GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now?
Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the … Continue reading
Coronavirus, You’re On Your Own
Say what you will about Chris but he has nailed the coronavirus from the beginning.
Are We Cheap Yet?
One helluva weak week for the stock market. Three of the five largest Dow point flops in history. Yes, we have already been lectured like a little schoolboy by the Twitterati geniuses “it is the percentage drops that count.” No … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized
Tagged Market Cap to GDP, Stock Market, Valuations, Wilshire 5000
17 Comments
Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!
Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days. Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx? We … Continue reading
The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus
Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame. It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Coronavirus, Supply shock
29 Comments
BFTP: Rare Earth Day 5.0
BFTP: Blast From The Past Wow, here is a blast from the past. Ahhhh, the daze of trading rare earfs! Watch this one, folks. It may play big in the trade war with China. Rare earth minerals could be weaponized … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Rare Earth Elements
Tagged Molycorp, Rare Earth Elements
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