Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now?

Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Coronavirus, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments

Coronavirus, You’re On Your Own

Say what you will about Chris but he has nailed the coronavirus from the beginning.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Are We Cheap Yet?

One helluva weak week for the stock market.  Three of the five largest Dow point flops in history.  Yes, we have already been lectured like a little schoolboy by the Twitterati geniuses “it is the percentage drops that count.”  No … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 17 Comments

Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!

Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days.   Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx?    We … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus

Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame.  It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 27 Comments

BFTP: Rare Earth Day 5.0

BFTP:  Blast From The Past Wow, here is a blast from the past.  Ahhhh, the daze of trading rare earfs! Watch this one, folks.  It may play big in the trade war with China. Rare earth minerals could be weaponized … Continue reading

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We Have Lift Off! (in the $)

  Can’t believe that was fiddy years past.  Going to see the new Apollo 11 flick on Saturday with my 15-year old daughter, who wants to be an astrophysicist. Back to biz… The Dixie – “To the Moon, Alice” Another … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Millennials Rising, Market Risk Increasing

Righteous! Check out today’s cover of the Economist.   It confirms our ongoing analysis and illustrates why you should read the Global Macro Monitor, folks. It’s been almost exactly one year to the date since we posted,  Karl, The Comeback Kid?  We warned … Continue reading

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Hmmmm…

I’m focused on the picture in the People’s Daily tweet.  Are those what I think they are? China has been keeping its promises to uphold environmental protection since the first global commitment in 1972. Over 40 years gone by since … Continue reading

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Deutsche Bank – Nein Schadenfreude

Source:   Urban Dictionary  Doing the rounds: Is Deutsche the new Lehman? Social media postings about Deutsche Bank more than quadrupled, and Twitter sentiment is negative. pic.twitter.com/Hq4mgnbQzv — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 10, 2018 Hat tip to Holger for pointing this … Continue reading

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