Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Time For Some Context, Again

Posted on August 27, 2020 by

Money Fueled Bubble Speculative manias gather speed through expansion of money and credit. Most expansions of money and credit do not lead to a mania; there are many more economic expansions than there are manias. But every mania has been … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Equities | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

GDP Now Q2 Estimate At -34.90 Percent, So What Now?

Posted on May 11, 2020 by

Summary The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is estimating a -34.9 percent Q2 GDP print, which is 3.5x the largest quarterly decline in the post-WWII economy If realized, the 11.3 percent non annualized first-half GDP collapse in 2020 will approach the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Coronavirus, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments

Coronavirus, You’re On Your Own

Posted on February 29, 2020 by

Say what you will about Chris but he has nailed the coronavirus from the beginning.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Are We Cheap Yet?

Posted on February 28, 2020 by

One helluva weak week for the stock market.  Three of the five largest Dow point flops in history.  Yes, we have already been lectured like a little schoolboy by the Twitterati geniuses “it is the percentage drops that count.”  No … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 17 Comments

Curse Of The Magazine Cover Strikes Again!

Posted on February 24, 2020 by

Wow, the Economist had almost perfect timing. After publishing the following cover on Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 7 percent in two days.   Regression To The Mean So, is there anything to the Magazine Cover Jinx?    We … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus

Posted on January 31, 2020 by

Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame.  It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

BFTP: Rare Earth Day 5.0

Posted on May 20, 2019 by

BFTP:  Blast From The Past Wow, here is a blast from the past.  Ahhhh, the daze of trading rare earfs! Watch this one, folks.  It may play big in the trade war with China. Rare earth minerals could be weaponized … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , | Leave a comment

We Have Lift Off! (in the $)

Posted on March 7, 2019 by

  Can’t believe that was fiddy years past.  Going to see the new Apollo 11 flick on Saturday with my 15-year old daughter, who wants to be an astrophysicist. Back to biz… The Dixie – “To the Moon, Alice” Another … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Millennials Rising, Market Risk Increasing

Posted on February 14, 2019 by

Righteous! Check out today’s cover of the Economist.   It confirms our ongoing analysis and illustrates why you should read the Global Macro Monitor, folks. It’s been almost exactly one year to the date since we posted,  Karl, The Comeback Kid?  We warned … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Hmmmm…

Posted on January 10, 2019 by

I’m focused on the picture in the People’s Daily tweet.  Are those what I think they are? China has been keeping its promises to uphold environmental protection since the first global commitment in 1972. Over 40 years gone by since … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment