Tag Archives: U.S. Budget Deficit

A Reversal of Fortune on U.S. Fiscal and Trade Deficits to GDP

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Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis.   Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 33 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 41 Comments

Flight to Quality Funding of the U.S. Budget Deficit

As we suspected in our last update in September, the flight to quality funding of the U.S. budget deficit would replace the end of QE2 and almost 100 percent indirect financing of the deficit by the Federal Reserve.  Looking at … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy | Tagged , | 1 Comment

QE and the “Crowding Out” of the Bond Market Vigilante

We’ve updated our chart of the sources of financing of the U.S. budget deficit from the Fed’s Flow of Funds data released on September 16th.   The chart illustrates how the Fed and foreign central banks have been indirectly fully … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Quote of the Day: Siemens’ McSwan Watch

Siemens AG (SIE), Europe’s largest engineering company, reported decent numbers this morning, including strong growth from the emerging markets.   But listen to CEO,  Peter Loescher,  on the conference call this morning.   He is vigilantly monitoring the many macro swans,  including … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Geopolitical, Quote of the Day, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Is This Why Bill Gross Dumped Treasuries?

A couple of revealing charts from the Fed’s Flow of Funds data.   Both show net flows into Treasuries by creditor type and the Federal Government’s borrowing during each quarter.   Note, the quarterly data is annualized. The first chart illustrates how … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 14 Comments

Who’s Funding the U.S. Budget Deficit?

Interesting data showing who is funding the U.S. budget deficit and how the profile has changed since the financial crisis.  We excluded 2008 as the aggregate data was distorted due to the Federal Reserve’s $265 BN sale (or exchange?) of … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Washington Gets Serious on Deficit Reduction

There is a whiff in Washington that the pols may be getting religion on the deficit.  The implosion of Europe must be scaring the s%*t out of them.  The WaPost writes, A debate is raging over the size and shape … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment