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Recent Posts
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Tag Archives: China
The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot, Hotter…3.0
#CKStrong We are reposting a repost of a piece we did last September. Our sense is Mr. Xi is testing and doing the calculus if the U.S.is willing to fight WWIII over Taiwan. Taiwan and U.S. officials have expressed alarm … Continue reading
Posted in China, Geopolitical, Geopolitics, Global Stock Performance, Uncategorized
Tagged China, H.R. McMaster, Montenegro, Taiwan
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Straight Flush: The Taiwan Straight Beats The Straight Of Hormuz
As the stock market and the FOMO chasers remain unhinged from reality (3 standard deviations above mean valuations) about as much as the crowd we watched in horror invade the Capitol yesterday, it’s time to revert to a fundamental story … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged China, Straight of Hormuz, Taiwan, Taiwan Semiconductor, Taiwan Strait
2 Comments
The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot…2.0
China has released video of a simulated air strike on the U.S. territory of Guam after Under Secretary of State @KeithJKrach visited Taiwan. More @business: https://t.co/je6XM6CaBE pic.twitter.com/YntkbIIQRJ — Bloomberg QuickTake (@QuickTake) September 21, 2020 We originally posted the following in … Continue reading
Posted in China, Geopolitical, Geopolitics, Global Stock Performance, Uncategorized
Tagged China, H.R. McMaster, Montenegro, Taiwan
5 Comments
China’s Industrial Output Plunges, GDP Headed For First Contraction On Record
China’s industrial output fell more than expected as the coronavirus shutdown factories, across the nation. Industrial output fell13.5% in January and February from a year earlier, versus a median estimate for a 3% contraction. Retail sales fell 20.5% in the … Continue reading
COTD: Coronavirus Risk To Manufacturing
The holiday is over, but few people are back in offices and factories…the effects of covid-19 will be like those of SARS in 2003: a sharp shock to Chinese growth, followed by a strong rebound. But SARS may not be a … Continue reading
Coronavirus: It’s The Second Derivative, Stupid!
Double yikes. Arrest this beast! Please! On a business trip meeting with many firms with huge exposure to China. Concern in their community definitely growing but still a bit clueless about the seriousness of the growing crisis. I give … Continue reading
The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus
Our analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus is a work in progress and nobody knows the endgame. It is still the early days of the epidemic, and its dynamics will take time to understand. The scale of the impact … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized
Tagged China, Coronavirus, Supply shock
29 Comments
Coronavirus Spreading To Heart of China Manufacturing
BREAKING: Shantou, a city in Guangdong province with nearly 5.5 million people, will be put on total lockdown from midnight — BNO Newsroom (@BNODesk) January 26, 2020 Coronavirus scare starting to hit big manufacturing cities and is definitely going to … Continue reading
U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinking And It’s All China
JANUARY 7, 2020 — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.1 billion in November, down $3.9 billion from $46.9 billion in October, revised November exports … Continue reading
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