Tag Archives: Trump

The 2026 Midterms: A Blue Tsunami Cometh

Midterm elections are often described as a referendum on the sitting president. History suggests that description is well deserved. From Reconstruction in 1866 to the Republican Revolution of 1994, midterm elections have repeatedly reshaped the balance of power in Washington … Continue reading →

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Tariff Reality Roasts the White House

On April 6, the Global Macro Monitor wrote: The strategy’s incoherence is evident in absurd measures such as, for example, a tariff on coffee, an import for which the U.S. lacks viable domestic production except de minimis production in Hawaii and … Continue reading →

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Tariffs and Toothpaste: The Inflation You Didn’t Expect

“This is a highly fluid situation and we’ll need to manage quantity decisions as we measure the price elasticity of impacted items,” underscoring how Walmart adjusts its inventory and pricing strategy based on customers’ sensitivity to price changes.” – John … Continue reading →

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Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – July 11

Markets wrapped up the week with a paradoxical sense of calm, even as trade tensions re-escalated on multiple fronts. At the center of the uncertainty is President Donald Trump’s hardline tariff rhetoric, including threats of sweeping new levies on the … Continue reading →

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Gagging Dr. Copper and Distorting the Economy

…AI data centers are likely to require enormous amounts of copper to meet their capacity needs… – Barron’s, July 9, 2022 Back in September 2022, Global Macro Monitor made the call: “If you are not buying copper hand-over-fist here, at … Continue reading →

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From Opium to Chips: The Long War Behind Trade Wars

This one’s a must-view, folks. Not just because it’s smart and informative (it is), but because if you want to understand where this global trade war is headed, you need to understand where we’ve been.  We’ve been here before, same … Continue reading →

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Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 23

Last week’s Global Risk Monitor (GRM) warned of potential instability in global tariff negotiations, and unfortunately, those concerns proved prescient. Markets stumbled under the weight of fiscal volatility, erratic policy pronouncements, and renewed trade threats—all driven by the chaotic and … Continue reading →

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HOTD: Back to Liberation Day?

HOTD = Headline of the Day As we suspected in yesterday’s Global Risk Monitor, recent developments confirm a deteriorating trajectory in U.S. trade negotiations. Today’s Financial Times headline underscores the hardening U.S. stance, signaling heightened tariff risks for non-cooperative trade … Continue reading →

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Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – May 2

This week, global equities extended their recovery, buoyed by rising optimism over potential U.S.–China trade negotiations. Though no formal talks or trade agreements have been signed and most tariffs remain in place—including broad-based global levies—markets responded positively to U.S. administration … Continue reading →

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Global Risk Monitor: Weekly Update – April 25

Global markets staged an impressive rebound this week, fueled by growing optimism that trade tensions between the United States and China may soon ease and that some bilateral trade deals are imminent.  Investors eagerly latched onto comments from U.S. Treasury … Continue reading →

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