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Tag Archives: finance
Presidential Budget Deficits
We are reposting the Appendix added and updated to yesterday’s post, America’s Fiscal Mirage: Tariff Sugar Rush, Structural Hangover. We thought it important as President Trump has formally requested a historic $1.5 trillion national defense budget for Fiscal Year 2027. This … Continue reading
America’s Fiscal Mirage: Tariff Sugar Rush, Structural Hangover
The headlines look almost encouraging. The U.S. federal deficit for the first seven months of fiscal year 2026 came in at $955 billion — $94 billion better than the same period a year earlier. Revenues rose 7%, outlays only 3%. … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – April 24
The Oil-Transport Paradox and the “Avis Distortion” In 2026, the age-old investment rule that “rising oil kills transport stocks” has seemingly been thrown out the window. While WTI crude has skyrocketed 70% year-to-date, a massive cost headwind for airlines and … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – April 17
Markets are currently behaving with the volatile, erratic energy of a teenager on a sugar high, oscillating between “the war is over” euphoria and the sobering realization that geopolitical stability is currently being drafted on a napkin in a war … Continue reading
Oil Shock Therapy – When WTI Breaks the World Order
The oil market just delivered one of those “stop what you’re doing” moments: U.S. benchmark WTI trading at a premium to Brent. That’s not just unusual, it’s a signal flare for acute market dislocation. What Happened (and Why It Matters) … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week In Review – March 27
Global markets are no longer simply trending lower, they are fracturing under policy uncertainty and headline-driven volatility. The U.S. market has suffered its fifth consecutive weekly decline in major U.S. indices, with the S&P 500 down ~7% YTD and the … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 20
The dominant market story this past week was not simply that risk assets sold off, it was that geopolitics forcibly rewired the macro regime. The escalation surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has shifted markets from a “disinflation + … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 13
Global markets ended the week in classic late-cycle fashion: equities tried to look composed, while everything underneath them looked increasingly less so. The dominant macro transmission channel was energy. The Iran conflict and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz … Continue reading
The Oil Shock vs. Irrational Resilience
As we approach the Ides of March, the S&P 500 is performing a high-wire act that should give even the most seasoned bull a case of vertigo. Currently sitting at 6,672, the index is a mere 4.7% below its recent … Continue reading
Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – March 6
The global market narrative has been utterly hijacked by the seventh day of the U.S./Iran conflict. While Washington demands “unconditional surrender,” the energy markets are issuing a surrender of their own, to pure, unadulterated upward momentum. Crude oil prices surged … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 